At the opening of the air war against Iran, the U.S. and Israel won a massively one-sided victory that left Iran’s defenses in tatters and much of its leadership dead. “We achieved air superiority within two days, if that,” says Mark Gunzinger, an analyst at the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies. But just because a war starts well doesn’t mean it will end that way. “The enemy gets a vote,” as former secretary of Defense James Mattis liked to say.
Iran’s Counterstrike: A Different Kind of War
Within hours of the opening salvos, Iran responded with barrages of its own, though of a different nature. Its air force neutralized, Iran turned to waves of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drones. Though these were cheap and lo-fi compared with U.S. weapons, the Iran counterstrike took a surprisingly painful toll with a single drone killing six American soldiers at a base in Kuwait. Amid the confusion, a Kuwaiti F-18 fighter jet reportedly shot down three U.S. F-15 fighters, the most ever lost in combat. By the second week of the conflict, Iran had also destroyed some of America’s most sophisticated radar systems, each of which costs $500 million, and taken down 11 hi-tech Reaper drones with a total cost of $330 million.
KEY LOSSES SO FAR
At the same time, Iran was going after civilian targets in the region, raining down drones and missiles day after day on Israel, Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates. In addition to targeting U.S. military bases in those countries, it went after critical oil-production facilities, desalination plants, data centers, and logistics hubs like airports. On Tuesday, the UAE shut down the Ruwais oil refinery, one of the largest in the world, following an Iranian strike. Iran’s most impactful measure has been to shut down the Strait of Hormuz, which sent oil prices soaring around the world.
The New Battlefield: Drones & Attrition
In short, while Iran has been all but helpless at the game the United States and Israel were playing, it has a playbook of its own: dragging the U.S. into a type of warfare very different from any it has faced directly. This new kind of battle space, which has evolved at hyperspeed during the four years of war in Ukraine, effectively tips the playing field in favor of the underdog. “The Iranians had a plan all along, and now they’re going out and doing the plan,” says retired F-16 fighter pilot John Waters. “They’re striking back.”
THE CORE TECHNOLOGY: THE DRONE
The core technology of the new warfare is the drone, or uninhabited aerial vehicle. Though in development for decades, it came to the fore amid Ukraine’s desperate efforts to repel the large-scale Russian invasion that began in February 2022. Ukraine’s first combat drones were off-the-shelf recreational models to which small explosives were attached. In time, this spawned a vast, quickly evolving industry that produces massive amounts of UAVs — currently 1,500 a day on the Ukrainian side. The aim isn’t high performance but sheer quantity: throw so many munitions downrange that you exhaust your enemy’s resources in trying to stop them.
Ukraine has proved drones can function as a kind of poor man’s air force. Russia’s Mach 2–capable fighters are of no use against a whirring quadcopter that’s only one foot across, and Russia’s 2,700 tanks proved vulnerable to relentless drone swarms. Over the winter, Ukraine’s drone-centric military had brought Russia’s slow-grinding offensive to a halt, and last month it regained more territory than it has lost for the first time since 2023.
What the Pentagon Must Learn — Fast
The U.S.’s best weapons may not be the answer
The country has long focused on building a small number of very expensive, very technologically advanced pieces of equipment... There’s simply no one place you can drop that mother of all bombs to make it stop.
Drone warfare is accessible to everyone
Even stateless Houthi rebels and narco cartels. Iran, a teetering regime with a decimated air-defense system, can still pump out an estimated 10,000 drones per month.
It turns into a manufacturing contest
“It’s an industrial battle,” says Thomas Withington of the U.K.’s Royal United Services Institute.
Offense is cheaper than defense
Each Iranian Shahed drone costs $20,000–$50,000. One American Raytheon Coyote interceptor costs $126,500.
U.S. RESPONSE
The U.S. recently launched mass drone production for a weapon called LUCAS — Low-Cost Unmanned Combat Attack System — based on the Shahed and costing just $35,000 each. It was reportedly used for the first time in the current campaign.
Ukraine has proved it’s possible to fight back like this against a larger military for a long time — and even to have some success. Iran has a larger stockpile than Hamas ever did and is in a better position to add to it. Sources in the region say it may still have more than half of the drones and missiles it started with.
As Iran continues to strangle the Strait of Hormuz, the pain of the ensuing energy crisis will only mount. One prominent analyst says the price of oil could climb above $200 a barrel — roughly $6 to $7 a gallon for gasoline in the U.S.
The Nuclear Shadow
From an Iranian perspective, this attack demonstrates that the country’s long-term security can be achieved only if it obtains the ability to wage a different type of warfare: the atomic kind.
“You’re leaving in power a regime that is more convinced than ever that they need a nuclear weapon as a deterrent,” says Fred Wehrey, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
“That’s the great tragedy of this.”
We’re in a New Kind of War