← Conflict Dashboard 🛰 OSINT Intelligence Log 500 entries
All ISW Ukraine Iran Gaza Maritime Ghost/Kinetic
2026-06-29
MARITIME Iran 22:20 UTC
Qeshm Isl: Iran reconstitutes defenses after strikes
MARITIME United States 22:20 UTC
Hormuz: US strikes Iran radar/drone sites
ISW·IRAN Israel 22:20 UTC
Israel: Iran cyberattacks surge 3x on Israeli infra
ISW·IRAN Tehran 22:20 UTC
Tehran: IRGC vows nuke for stability amid ceasefire
ISW·IRAN Iran 22:20 UTC
Strait Hormuz: Iran drones hit tanker, US retaliates
BREAKING X Iran 22:20 UTC
Bahrain: Iran drone/missile hits US bases repelled
BREAKING X United States 22:20 UTC
Gulf: US-Iran halt attacks, Doha talks set
BREAKING X Tehran 22:20 UTC
Tehran: IRGC claims Hormuz control post-US strike
FLASH PT Lebanon 22:20 UTC
Lebanon: Hezbollah vows escalation vs Israel
FLASH PT Taiwan 22:20 UTC
Taiwan Strait: China 7 PLAN ships probe Taiwan
FLASH PT Donetsk 22:20 UTC
Donetsk: Russia missiles kill 11 civilians Ukraine
HORMUZ Iran 18:20 UTC
Gulf: Iran drone hit tanker; US strike radar
UNREST 18:20 UTC
S Africa: Trophy hunt backlash sparks outrage
UNREST Pakistan 18:20 UTC
Pakistan: Airstrikes kill 36 civs vs Taliban
MARITIME United States 18:20 UTC
Oman: US disabled tanker violating blockade
MARITIME 18:20 UTC
Strait Hormuz: Traffic drops sharply post strikes
FLASH PT Taiwan 18:20 UTC
Taiwan: 7 PLAN ships patrol; Fujian activity
FLASH PT Ukraine 18:20 UTC
Ukraine: Russia missile/drone barrage kills 11
ISW·IRAN Tehran 18:20 UTC
Tehran: Cyber surge vs Israel: 4800 incidents
CYBER Israel 18:20 UTC
Israel: Iran cyberattacks tripled 2026
OSINT INTE Poland 17:40 UTC
POLAND / RUSSIA: Poland's Foreign Intelligence Chief has said the country must act like a war with Russia is imminent in the near future and does not rule out a "green men" provocation.
OSINT INTE 17:40 UTC
STRAIT OF HORMUZ (THREAT): Threat level in Strait of Hormuz for maritime traffic raised to substantial by UK maritime agency due to recent Iranian attacks on commercial shipping. UKMTO advisory on tanker struck by projectile (bridge damaged, no injuries/pollution). Iran routinely launching upwards of 6 drones nightly towards commercial shipping. Qatar's Ministry of Transport directed maritime vessels to temporarily suspend all sailing and maritime activities until further notice. Qatari transporting authorities instructed civilians to halt all maritime activity due to security concerns of Iranian strikes around Strait of Hormuz.
OSINT INTE United Kingdom 17:40 UTC
United Kingdom (DOMESTIC / TRAFFICKING): Human trafficker helping illegal migrants crossing the English Channel has contacts within British government tipping him off to avoid security checks at Dover.
OSINT INTE Russia 17:40 UTC
RUSSIA (MOBILISATION): Russian authorities in panic; could announce mobilisation as early as September as current battlefield losses exceed recruitment numbers.
OSINT INTE 17:40 UTC
UKRAINE / RUSSIA (DRONE & MISSILE STRIKES): / / / — Huge Ukrainian drone attack headed toward Moscow right now. Massive Ukrainian attack on Crimea ongoing, explosions all over including Sevastopol. Russia's Slavyansk-na-Kubani oil refinery continues to burn out of control for a second day after Ukrainian drone strikes. Long video from of FP-1/2, Hornet, and other UAS strikes on air defense systems, radar, energy infrastructure during June. More Hornet strikes by Ukraine's 3rd SSO Regiment on Russian trucks. Volodymyr Kononnikov, commander of Ukraine's 154th Separate Mechanized Brigade, found dead with gunshot wound (investigation opened under Article 115). Updated maps showing Russian advances near Huliaipole and Hryshyne; pushed back near Prymorske. Ukrainian FP-5 “Flamingo” cruise missiles previously hit Titan-Barrikady plant in Volgograd. Russian Geran/Seeker strikes ongoing. New Russian tactic: FPV-on-UGV to strike soldiers. Two Russian aircraft destroyed in Ukrainian strikes on large airbase.
OSINT INTE 17:40 UTC
IRAN (United States STRIKES / IRAN RESPONSE): / — Bahrain underwent another wave of Iranian drone and missile strikes overnight. Informed European source: Iran routinely every night launching upwards of 6 drones towards commercial shipping in Strait of Hormuz. Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi visited site where Qasem Soleimani was killed in Iraq. Iran has the sole responsibility of administering the Strait of Hormuz (Araghchi). US-Iran talks stalled due to recent military action and lack of progress on nuclear issues. US and Iran agreed to halt strikes and meet in Qatar Tuesday. Senior Trump administration official says U.S.-Iran talks set for this weekend in Switzerland are still on (contradicts WSJ postponement report). WSJ: Next round of U.S.-Iran talks postponed following reciprocal strikes. Qatar's Ministry of Transport directed maritime vessels to temporarily suspend all sailing and maritime activities until further notice amid heightened security concerns in the region (Strait of Hormuz). Qatari transporting authorities instructed civilians to halt all maritime activity due to security concerns of Iranian strikes around Strait of Hormuz.
OSINT INTE 17:40 UTC
UKRAINE / RUSSIA: Ukrainian FP-5 “Flamingo” cruise missiles hit Titan-Barrikady Defense Plant in Volgograd (multiple missiles). Russian Geran/Seeker strikes on trucks, trains, gas station, warehouses, MiG-29 at Voznesensk. New Russian tactic: FPV-on-UGV to strike soldiers. Slavyansk-na-Kubani refinery burning out of control for second day after Ukrainian drone strike. Two Russian aircraft destroyed in Ukrainian strikes on large airbase. Huge Ukrainian drone attack headed toward Moscow. Massive Ukrainian attack on Crimea ongoing, explosions all over including Sevastopol. Volodymyr Kononnikov, commander of Ukraine's 154th Separate Mechanized Brigade, found dead with gunshot wound. Ukraine's 25th Assault Battalion "Lynx" expanded to regiment. Long video of UAS strikes in June. More Hornet strikes on Russian trucks. Updated maps showing Russian advances/pushbacks. ## Section 8 – EBOLA OUTBREAK
OSINT INTE United States 17:40 UTC
MILITARY / United States: US conducted additional/larger strikes on Iranian targets near Strait of Hormuz in retaliation for Iran targeting another vessel (M/T Kiku) this morning (CENTCOM confirmed; Axios). Iran responded by striking U.S. forces in Bahrain with drones (9 shot down) and targeting Kuwait. IRGC claims targeted 8 US military infrastructure sites. Continued US tanker/fighter activity over Strait in cat-and-mouse with Iranian naval gunboats and air defence (despite ceasefire). Previous Senate resolution limiting Trump on resuming ops. Bahrain Iranian drone attack (retaliation for US strikes). Air raid sirens in Bahrain. ## Section 6 – MARITIME & AIRSPACE
OSINT INTE 17:40 UTC
STRAIT OF HORMUZ: Tanker struck by projectile; bridge damaged, no injuries/pollution (UKMTO advisory). Threat level substantial due to Iranian attacks on commercial shipping. WSJ reports tanker hit by projectile. Iran attacked vessel with missiles (drone strike). Rejected Omani/IMO transit framework. Warnings that strait closed without permission. IMO suspended evacuation mission. US struck Iranian missile/drone storage and coastal radar sites in response (additional round). Bahrain Iranian drone attack targeting Bahrain (likely US forces); 9 drones shot down. US Air Force tankers active post-strikes. IRGC claims targeted 8 US military infrastructure sites in Kuwait and Bahrain. Both Bahrain and Kuwait dealing with renewed Iranian drone/missile attacks. Air raid sirens in Bahrain. Iran threatening complete exit from talks with US over recent strikes and fired multiple ballistic missiles at Gulf states overnight. Iran's Foreign Ministry says US violated peace agreement and does not value its commitments. Iran has sole responsibility of administering Strait of Hormuz (Araghchi). US and Iran agreed to halt strikes and meet in Qatar Tuesday. Senior Trump administration official says U.S.-Iran talks set for this weekend in Switzerland are still on (contradicts WSJ postponement report). WSJ: Next round of U.S.-Iran talks postponed following reciprocal strikes. US-Iran talks stalled due to recent military action and lack of progress on nuclear issues. Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi visited site where Qasem Soleimani was killed in Iraq. Qatar's Ministry of Transport directed maritime vessels to temporarily suspend all sailing and maritime activities until further notice. Qatari transporting authorities instructed civilians to halt all maritime activity due to security concerns of Iranian strikes around Strait of Hormuz. Polymarket low odds on final nuclear deal by end of July.
OSINT INTE Poland 17:40 UTC
POLAND: Foreign Intelligence Chief: country must act like war with Russia is imminent; does not rule out "green men" provocation.
OSINT INTE Pakistan 17:40 UTC
PAKISTAN / AFGHANISTAN: Pakistan conducted strikes on Afghanistan and ground operations in Bajaur against militants.
OSINT INTE 17:40 UTC
IRAN: Attacked vessel in Strait of Hormuz with missiles (drone strike). Rejected Omani/IMO transit framework. Warnings that strait closed without permission. IMO suspended evacuation mission. US struck Iranian missile/drone storage and coastal radar sites in response (additional round). Bahrain condemned Iranian drone attack targeting Bahrain (likely US forces); 9 drones shot down. US Air Force tankers active post-strikes. IRGC claims targeted 8 US military infrastructure sites in Kuwait and Bahrain. Both Bahrain and Kuwait dealing with renewed Iranian drone/missile attacks. Air raid sirens in Bahrain. Iran threatening complete exit from talks with US over recent strikes and fired multiple ballistic missiles at Gulf states overnight. Iran's Foreign Ministry says US violated peace agreement and does not value its commitments. Iran has sole responsibility of administering Strait of Hormuz (Araghchi). US and Iran agreed to halt strikes and meet in Qatar Tuesday. Senior Trump administration official says U.S.-Iran talks set for this weekend in Switzerland are still on (contradicts WSJ postponement report). WSJ: Next round of U.S.-Iran talks postponed following reciprocal strikes. US-Iran talks stalled due to recent military action and lack of progress on nuclear issues. Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi visited site where Qasem Soleimani was killed in Iraq. Qatar's Ministry of Transport directed maritime vessels to temporarily suspend all sailing and maritime activities until further notice. Qatari transporting authorities instructed civilians to halt all maritime activity due to security concerns of Iranian strikes around Strait of Hormuz. Polymarket low odds on final nuclear deal by end of July.
OSINT INTE 17:40 UTC
RUSSIA: Moscow refinery shut until 2027 from drone strikes; massive fuel disruption. Preparing October mobilisation; could announce as early as September due to battlefield losses exceeding recruitment. Belarus cutting Russian drone guidance systems into Northern Ukraine. Trump notes tide turning against Russia in Ukraine. Massive ballistic missile attack on Kyiv ongoing. Colonel Koziura treason conviction. Russian security services attempting to locate key Ukrainian officials in Kyiv for potential assassinations. Geran/Seeker strikes on Ukrainian targets; new FPV-on-UGV tactic. Ukrainian Flamingo cruise missiles hit Titan-Barrikady plant in Volgograd. Slavyansk-na-Kubani refinery burning out of control for second day after Ukrainian drone strikes. Two Russian aircraft destroyed in Ukrainian strikes on large airbase. Huge Ukrainian drone attack headed toward Moscow. Massive Ukrainian attack on Crimea ongoing, explosions all over including Sevastopol. Volodymyr Kononnikov, commander of Ukraine's 154th Separate Mechanized Brigade, found dead with gunshot wound (investigation opened). Ukraine's 25th Assault Battalion "Lynx" expanded to regiment. Updated maps showing Russian advances near Huliaipole and Hryshyne; pushed back near Prymorske. Long video of Ukrainian UAS strikes on air defense, radar, energy infrastructure in June. More Hornet strikes on Russian trucks.
OSINT INTE United States 17:40 UTC
United States DOMESTIC (SUPREME COURT / MAIL-India BALLOTS): In a 5-4 decision, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that mail-in ballots postmarked by Election Day may be counted even if they arrive after Election Day, provided state law permits it. President Trump responded to the ruling, calling it a "tremendous loss" and urging Republican holdouts in the Senate to pass the 'Save America Act'. ## Section 2 – REGIONAL FLASH POINTS
OSINT INTE Venezuela 17:40 UTC
VENEZUELA (EARTHQUAKE RELIEF): USS Fort Lauderdale (LPD 28) docked in Venezuela’s La Guaira port earlier in support of ongoing expanding U.S. relief operations following twin 7.2 and 7.5 magnitude earthquakes. Venezuelan NGO RedesAyuda installed free WiFi hotspots in 8 locations in Caracas and La Guaira to enable affected citizens to communicate amidst widespread devastation. Venezuela's opposition leader María Corina Machado said she will be returning to Venezuela “very soon” to support her people in the aftermath of the twin earthquakes.
BREAKING X Iran 14:20 UTC
Global: Iran cyberattacks surge on Israel 4800 incidents
HORMUZ 14:20 UTC
Gulf: Unid proj strikes oil tanker Strait Hormuz
ISW·IRAN 14:20 UTC
ME: Tit-for-tat strikes continue Hormuz tensions
CYBER Israel 14:20 UTC
Israel: Iran cyberattacks spiked 1600 to 4800 June
CIVIL UNRE Iran 14:20 UTC
Iran: Anti-regime messages hacked into prayer app
CIVIL UNRE Lebanon 14:20 UTC
Lebanon: Hezbollah vows civil war post infra strikes
CIVIL UNRE 14:20 UTC
Global: Bolivia emergency vs crippling blockade protests
MARITIME Iran 14:20 UTC
Bahrain: Iran missiles drones hit US bases Kuwait Bahrain
MARITIME Iran 14:20 UTC
Hormuz: Iran drone hits Panama tanker US retaliates
FLASH PT Yemen 14:20 UTC
Yemen: Houthis control Red Sea coasts ongoing
FLASH PT Ukraine 14:20 UTC
Ukraine: Russia preps massive attack Zelensky warns
ISW·IRAN Lebanon 14:20 UTC
Lebanon: Israel destroys Hezbollah underground infra S Lebanon
ISW·IRAN Iran 14:20 UTC
Iran: IRGC threatens halt talks post US strikes
ISW·IRAN Iran 14:20 UTC
Iran: Tehran insists Hormuz control amid US talks
ISW·IRAN Iran 13:40 UTC
Iran: Iran’s involvement in negotiations in Switzerland has exposed fissures among some Iranian factions over how Iran should advance its objectives
ISW·IRAN 13:40 UTC
Iran: Iran is using its announced closure of the Strait of Hormuz to increase economic pressure on the United States as part of its effort to push the United States to compel Israel to halt operations against Hezbollah and withdraw from Lebanon
ISW·IRAN Iran 13:40 UTC
Iran: Iran likely seeks to acquire funds up front in case negotiations collapse and likely also seeks to reduce US leverage in later nuclear talks in order to make it more difficult for the United States to extract concessions from Iran
ISW·IRAN Iran 13:40 UTC
Iran: Iran is also attempting to frontload economic benefits from the MoU before addressing its nuclear file in negotiations
ISW·IRAN Israel 13:40 UTC
Israel: Israeli and Hezbollah attacks have largely paused since June 20, but Israeli forces continue clearing operations within the Israel Defense Forces’ (IDF) “security zone” in southern Lebanon
ISW·IRAN Iran 13:40 UTC
Iran: Iran’s interpretation of this clause is part of its broader effort to preserve Hezbollah as a central element of Iran’s deterrence strategy against Israel
ISW·IRAN 13:40 UTC
Iran: Iran is using the first clause of the MoU, which calls for a ceasefire on all fronts, to try to compel the United States to pressure Israel to cease operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon and withdraw its forces from Lebanese territory
ISW·IRAN Iran 13:40 UTC
Iran: Iranian officials and media emphasized that the June 21 talks only focused on pushing the United States to implement MoU clauses that the MoU states must be implemented before nuclear negotiations can begin
ISW·IRAN Iran 13:40 UTC
Iran: Iran and the United States held quadrilateral talks with Qatari and Pakistani mediators in Burgenstock, Switzerland, on June 21
ISW·IRAN Iran 13:40 UTC
Iran: Iran is attempting to use the sequencing of the US-Iran memorandum of understanding’s (MoU) clauses to make the United States meet Iranian demands regarding Lebanon and economic relief before Iran agrees to discuss nuclear issues
C YBER & I 12:20 UTC
GLOBAL: Chinese AI agent swarms advance autonomous cyber attacks.
C IVIL UNR United Kingdom 12:20 UTC
United Kingdom: Protests vs undocumented migrants, Soweto marches.
C IVIL UNR United Kingdom 12:20 UTC
United Kingdom: Far-right tensions spark unrest fears, Southport echoes.
C IVIL UNR Saudi Arabia 12:20 UTC
Saudi Arabia: Mass marches risk repeat of deadly 2021 riots.
G LOBAL SC Israel 12:20 UTC
ISRAEL: Netanyahu aide: one state Jordan River to sea.
G LOBAL SC Iran 12:20 UTC
IRAN: US strikes Iranian sites, tit-for-tat over Hormuz.
G LOBAL SC Iran 12:20 UTC
IRAN: Hormuz control insisted, US-Iran pause attacks/talks.
C YBER & I United Kingdom 12:20 UTC
United Kingdom: Network Rail faces torrent of cyber threats.
C YBER & I Iran 12:20 UTC
IRAN: Spike in Iranian cyberattacks on Israel, 4800 incidents.
ISW·IRAN Tehran 10:20 UTC
Tehran: IRGC claims US bases hit; $6B release
FLASH PT Yemen 10:20 UTC
Yemen: Houthi missile tests; Israel targets Ansar
FLASH PT Beirut 10:20 UTC
Beirut: Hezbollah vows; Israel prep Houthi op
ISW·IRAN Israel 10:20 UTC
Israel: Ceasefire fragile; mutual strikes halt temp
ISW·IRAN Iran 10:20 UTC
Strait: Iran insists Hormuz control; talks Doha
CYBER Tel Aviv 10:20 UTC
Tel Aviv: Iran attacks surge 3x vs Israel infra
UNRST Iran 10:20 UTC
Iran: Arrests spies; riot police deploy
UNRST Tehran 10:20 UTC
Tehran: Regime fears protests; internet curbs
HORMUZ Iran 10:20 UTC
Gulf: Iran drones hit ships; US strikes IRGC
MAR United States 10:20 UTC
Gulf: US escorts; shipping threats persist
MAR Iran 10:20 UTC
Hormuz: Iran drones vs tankers; US/UK monitor
FLASH PT Gaza 10:20 UTC
Gaza: Ongoing operations; no major new strikes
NUCLEAR Iran 06:20 UTC
Iran: REGIME RACES FOR BOMB POST STRIKES; IAEA LOST 400KG HEU
US BASES Iran 06:20 UTC
Gulf: IRAN DRONE/MISSILE BARRAGE BAHRAIN KUWAIT
HORMUZ Iran 06:20 UTC
Strait: IRAN THREATENS TALKS HALT; SHIPS MOVE
HORMUZ Iran 06:20 UTC
Gulf: IRAN DRONE HITS TANKER; US STRIKES COASTAL SITES
INDIA Kashmir 06:20 UTC
Kashmir: ARMS CACHE RECOVERED SOPORE OP
FLASH PT Ukraine 03:20 UTC
Ukraine: Russian missiles/drones kill 9, injure dozens
MARITIME 03:20 UTC
Strait Hormuz: Traffic halts after tanker/drone attacks
FLASH PT Israel 03:20 UTC
Israel: Iranian strike hits Haifa oil facilities
BREAKING X Gaza 03:20 UTC
Gaza: Israel expands Gaza strikes, Hamas stalls disarmament
ISW·IRAN Iran 03:20 UTC
Iran: IRGC missiles hit US sites Bahrain/Kuwait
BREAKING X Israel 03:20 UTC
Strait Hormuz: IRGC strikes Israel-linked ship
BREAKING X United States 03:20 UTC
ME: US-Iran meet planned amid tensions
FLASH PT Lebanon 03:20 UTC
Lebanon: Israeli strikes kill 30+ in new wave
ISW·IRAN Tehran 03:20 UTC
Tehran: Explosions near Bandar Abbas, AD reconstitution
BREAKING X Iran 02:20 UTC
IRAN/GULF: [ / ] — U.S. and Iran agreed to halt reciprocal strikes in Gulf region; technical talks continue despite Iranian non-attendance citing U.S. strikes; hotline between U.S. military and IRGC discussed but not yet established.
BREAKING X Russia 02:20 UTC
RUSSIA: [] — Major Ukrainian drone raid ongoing with over 400 attack drones launched into Russian airspace; multi-hour gas lines reported in western Russia (e.g., Anapa, Krasnodar Krai) due to refinery shutdowns from prior strikes. Unverified scale of impacts.
BREAKING X Venezuela 02:20 UTC
VENEZUELA: [] — International aid response ongoing with 2,140+ personnel/128 dogs from multiple countries; U.S. Marines conducting aerial damage assessment of Caracas coast post-earthquakes.
2026-06-28
FLASH PT Gaza 22:20 UTC
Gaza/Lebanon: Israel operations continue vs proxies
BREAKING X 22:20 UTC
Kuwait: IRGC drone attack on Al Salem base
ISW·IRAN Iran 22:20 UTC
Iran: IRGC claims Hormuz control amid strikes
ISW·IRAN United States 22:20 UTC
Strait Hormuz: US bombs IRGC drone/missile sites
OSINT INTE Moscow 22:00 UTC
MOSCOW, RUSSIA: Moscow oil refinery shuttered until 2027 after Ukrainian drone strikes last week. Repairs minimum 6 months; massive fuel supply disruption.
OSINT INTE Venezuela 22:00 UTC
VENEZUELA: US MV-22B Ospreys from USS Fort Lauderdale arriving at Simón Bolívar International Airport for earthquake relief. Indian C-17s en route with field hospital and supplies. ## Section 7 – CYBER & INFRASTRUCTURE
OSINT INTE United States 22:00 UTC
EUROPE / MIDDLE EAST: Massive US airforce activity reinforcing forces with supplies, anti-aircraft equipment; tankers from Israel.
OSINT INTE Syria 22:00 UTC
SYRIA: US drone strike on senior ISIS leader.
OSINT INTE Crimea 22:00 UTC
CRIMEA / BLACK SEA: Heavy explosions from massive Ukrainian drone raid. Power substation hit causing outages. Previous infrastructure strikes. Massive Ukrainian attack on Crimea ongoing, explosions all over including Sevastopol.
OSINT INTE Strait of Hormuz 22:00 UTC
STRAIT OF HORMUZ: Tanker struck by projectile; bridge damaged (UKMTO). Threat level substantial due to Iranian attacks. Iran attacked vessel with missiles (drone strike). Rejected Omani/IMO transit framework. US struck Iranian missile/drone storage and coastal radar sites in response (additional round). Bahrain Iranian drone attack targeting Bahrain (likely US forces); 9 drones shot down. US Air Force tankers active post-strikes. IMO suspended evacuation mission. US tankers active post-attack. Traffic resuming/increasing. Previous no-tolls confirmation. Iran routinely launching upwards of 6 drones nightly towards commercial shipping.
OSINT INTE 22:00 UTC
PAKISTAN / AFGHANISTAN: Pakistan conducted strikes on Afghanistan and ground operations in Bajaur against militants. ## Section 4 – CIVIL UNREST Limited major new mass protests or riots in priority feeds. US domestic notes on Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool (previous fencing/tourists after Trump algae comments). Broader strains from Russia-Ukraine war, Middle East dynamics, and extreme heat in Europe/UK persist without new large-scale civil unrest spikes. Venezuela earthquake response ongoing with search-and-rescue and collapsed buildings. Mali incident with Russian mercenaries (mutilation of bodies). British asylum camp expansion announcement pending. British council AC unit removals causing local friction. Man drove into crowd in Ealing London (investigation ongoing). Iraq: Gunfire in Green Zone during arrests of politicians. UK: Human trafficker with government contacts tipping off to avoid checks. ## Section 5 – IRAN FOCUS (last ~12 hours)
OSINT INTE DRC 22:00 UTC
ITURI, NORTH KIVU, SOUTH KIVU PROVINCES (DRC) & UGANDA: Bundibugyo virus Ebola outbreak (17th in DRC, PHEIC) remains active. Latest (as of June 26, 2026): 1,155 confirmed cases, 304 deaths in DRC (Ituri ~1,054 cases across 22 health zones). Uganda: 20 confirmed cases, 2 deaths (no new since June 21). France: first imported case (doctor returned from DRC humanitarian mission). High CFR (~26%); 126+ recoveries. Challenges: armed conflict, displacement, delayed detection, patients fleeing facilities, response team issues. No approved vaccine for strain. International response ongoing; treatments showing results. Situation fluid; record first-month spread noted.
OSINT INTE Iraq 22:00 UTC
IRAQ: Iraqi SOF and Army armor conducting arrests of politicians in Green Zone amid corruption investigations by new PM Ali Al-Zaidi. Politicians on both sides of U.S.-Iran spectrum targeted. Gunfire reported. 47 individuals arrested in sweeping crackdown on corruption after confession of Oil Ministry undersecretary Adnan al-Jumaili; $85 million seized. Reasonable possibility arrests related to U.S.-Iran competing interests in Iraq and pressure on Iranian-backed paramilitary groups.
OSINT INTE United States 22:00 UTC
BAHRAIN / KUWAIT: Iranian drone and missile attacks; air defense systems intercepting hostile targets. IRGC claims targeted US Fifth Fleet Headquarters in Bahrain and Ali Salem Air Base in Kuwait. Air raid sirens in Bahrain. Bahrain underwent another wave of Iranian drone and missile strikes overnight.
OSINT INTE South Korea 22:00 UTC
SOUTH KOREA: Plans to train entire military to operate drones as easily as firearms.
OSINT INTE Australia 22:00 UTC
AUSTRALIA / United States: MQ-28 Ghost Bat participated in Exercise Valiant Shield 2026.
OSINT INTE United States 22:00 UTC
United States MILITARY: Flu vaccination required again for basic training after outbreak. Massive air activity reinforcing Europe/Middle East. Additional strikes on Iranian targets near Strait of Hormuz (CENTCOM). MQ-28 Ghost Bat in exercise with allies. Army should treat drones like ammo; brigade needs 1,000-1,500 drones per week in sustained combat. FPV expenditure: brigades using ~50-110 FPVs per day (higher in intense directions); can take 150+ FPVs to stop platoon to company-sized mechanized assault.
OSINT INTE France 22:00 UTC
FRANCE: First imported Ebola case confirmed (doctor from DRC mission).
OSINT INTE United Kingdom 22:00 UTC
EUROPE / United Kingdom: British government about to announce massive expansion of asylum camps for illegal migrants. Record ambulance call-ins related to massive heatwave. British council forcing removal of non-compliant AC units. Man drove into crowd in Ealing London. Hottest day ever recorded in UK. Human trafficker has contacts within British government tipping him off to avoid security checks at Dover.
OSINT INTE Mali 22:00 UTC
MALI: Russian mercenaries killed two men and mutilated bodies into Swastika sign.
OSINT INTE Syria 22:00 UTC
SYRIA / ISIS: US drone strike killed senior ISIS commander planning attacks in US/Europe.
OSINT INTE Venezuela 22:00 UTC
VENEZUELA: Major earthquakes (7.2/7.5) caused widespread devastation in Caracas and northern coastal areas; collapsed buildings, airport disruptions, at least 235 dead. US SOUTHCOM, State Department, and international partners (India) surging massive relief: ships, aircraft, search-and-rescue teams, field hospitals, supplies. Maj. Gen. Jarrard leading US effort. Successful rescues ongoing (baby and mother from debris).
OSINT INTE 22:00 UTC
IRAN: Attacked vessel in Strait of Hormuz with missiles (drone strike). Rejected Omani/IMO transit framework. Warnings that strait closed without permission. IMO suspended evacuation mission. US struck Iranian missile/drone storage and coastal radar sites in response (additional round). Bahrain condemned Iranian drone attack targeting Bahrain (likely US forces); 9 drones shot down. US Air Force tankers active post-strikes. IRGC claims targeted 8 US military infrastructure sites in Kuwait and Bahrain. Both Bahrain and Kuwait dealing with renewed Iranian drone/missile attacks. Air raid sirens in Bahrain. Iran threatening complete exit from talks with US over recent strikes and fired multiple ballistic missiles at Gulf states overnight. Iran's Foreign Ministry says US violated peace agreement and does not value its commitments. Iran has sole responsibility of administering Strait of Hormuz (Araghchi). US and Iran agreed to halt strikes and meet in Qatar Tuesday. Senior Trump administration official says U.S.-Iran talks set for this weekend in Switzerland are still on (contradicts WSJ postponement report). WSJ: Next round of U.S.-Iran talks postponed following reciprocal strikes. US-Iran talks stalled due to recent military action and lack of progress on nuclear issues. Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi visited site where Qasem Soleimani was killed in Iraq. Polymarket low odds on final nuclear deal by end of July.
OSINT INTE 22:00 UTC
UKRAINE: Continued successful drone and missile strikes on Russian infrastructure (Crimea power/grid, radar/energy, western Russia, Volgograd, Slavyansk-on-Kuban). PATRIOT intercepts over Kyiv. First public use of domestic glide bombs. Belarus cooperation on jamming Russian drone guidance. Internal treason case against former SBU official. Commander Syrskyi cautious on turning point but hopeful for enemy exhaustion. Destroyed two Russian aircraft on airbase. Huge drone attack toward Moscow. Massive attack on Crimea ongoing. Commander of 154th Mechanized Brigade found dead. 25th Assault Battalion "Lynx" expanded to regiment.
OSINT INTE 22:00 UTC
RUSSIA: Moscow refinery shut until 2027 from drone strikes; massive fuel disruption. Preparing October mobilisation; could announce as early as September due to battlefield losses exceeding recruitment. Belarus cutting Russian drone guidance systems into Northern Ukraine. Trump notes tide turning against Russia in Ukraine. Massive ballistic missile attack on Kyiv ongoing. Colonel Koziura treason conviction. Russian security services attempting to locate key Ukrainian officials in Kyiv for potential assassinations. Geran/Seeker strikes on Ukrainian targets; new FPV-on-UGV tactic. Ukrainian Flamingo cruise missiles hit Titan-Barrikady plant in Volgograd. Slavyansk-na-Kubani refinery burning out of control after Ukrainian drone strike. Two Russian aircraft destroyed in Ukrainian strikes on large airbase. Huge Ukrainian drone attack headed toward Moscow. Massive Ukrainian attack on Crimea ongoing, explosions all over including Sevastopol. Volodymyr Kononnikov, commander of Ukraine's 154th Mechanized Brigade, found dead. Ukraine's 25th Assault Battalion "Lynx" expanded to a regiment.
OSINT INTE 22:00 UTC
CENTRAL ASIA / CAUCASUS: No significant new developments. ## Section 3 – GLOBAL SCAN
OSINT INTE South Korea 22:00 UTC
ASIA-PACIFIC: South Korea plans to train entire military to operate drones. Pakistan conducted strikes on Afghanistan and ground operations in Bajaur against militants. Limited other major new escalations in priority feeds.
OSINT INTE DRC 22:00 UTC
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA - DRC (ITURI, N. KIVU, S. KIVU) & UGANDA: Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak active. Latest (as of June 26): 1,155 confirmed cases, 304 deaths in DRC (Ituri ~1,054 cases across 22 health zones). Uganda: 20 confirmed cases, 2 deaths (no new since June 21). France confirmed first imported case (doctor returned from DRC humanitarian mission). PHEIC; conflict complicating response.
OSINT INTE Venezuela 22:00 UTC
AMERICAS - VENEZUELA / UNITED STATES: Major 7.2 and 7.5 magnitude earthquakes struck Venezuela (epicenter west of Caracas). Death toll at least 235. Utter devastation in Caracas and La Guaira; collapsed buildings, severe disruptions at Simon Bolivar International Airport, landslides. US Southern Command (SOUTHCOM) activated operational planning team and surging forces for relief: USS Fort Lauderdale (LPD-28), USS Billings (LCS-15), C-17A Globemaster III, C-130H Hercules, reconnaissance platforms, and rotary-wing aircraft. U.S. Marine Corps Maj. Gen. Kevin J. Jarrard leading relief efforts; met with Venezuelan Defense Minister Gustavo González López (previously sanctioned by US). USA-01 heavy urban search-and-rescue team arrived. Indian Air Force C-17s en route with field hospital and supplies. MV-22B Ospreys from USS Fort Lauderdale arriving at Simón Bolívar International Airport. released video showing successful rescue of young child's mother after she spent several days trapped beneath a collapsed building.
OSINT INTE Strait of Hormuz 22:00 UTC
STRAIT OF HORMUZ (THREAT): Threat level in Strait of Hormuz for maritime traffic raised to substantial by UK maritime agency due to recent Iranian attacks on commercial shipping. UKMTO advisory on tanker struck by projectile (bridge damaged, no injuries/pollution). Iran routinely launching upwards of 6 drones nightly towards commercial shipping. ## Section 2 – REGIONAL FLASH POINTS
OSINT INTE Russia 22:00 UTC
RUSSIA (TACTICS): Russian forces employing new tactic of landing fiber optic cable FPVs on Ukrainian UGVs and striking Ukrainian soldiers when the UGV reaches its destination.
OSINT INTE United States 22:00 UTC
United States / AUSTRALIA (EXERCISE): Boeing Australia MQ-28 “Ghost Bat” Stealth Multirole Unmanned Combat Aircraft participated in Exercise Valiant Shield 2026 alongside US and allied forces.
OSINT INTE United States 22:00 UTC
United States / ALLIES (DRONE WARFARE): South Korea plans to train every single member of its nearly half-million-strong military to operate drones as easily as they handle personal firearms. Army should treat drones like ammo; one officer estimates brigade needs 1,000 to 1,500 drones per week in sustained combat. FPV expenditure: brigades using ~50-110 FPVs per day (higher in intense directions); can take 150+ FPVs to stop platoon to company-sized mechanized assault.
OSINT INTE Ukraine 22:00 UTC
UKRAINE (COMMANDER ASSESSMENT): Ukrainian Armed Forces commander-in-chief Oleksandr Syrskyi said he cannot say definitively that Russia’s war against Ukraine is nearing a turning point; hopes for moment when enemy exhausts resources and turning point may follow.
OSINT INTE 22:00 UTC
UKRAINE / RUSSIA (DRONE & MISSILE STRIKES): / — Huge Ukrainian drone attack headed toward Moscow right now. Massive Ukrainian attack on Crimea ongoing, explosions all over including Sevastopol. Volodymyr Kononnikov, commander of Ukraine's 154th Mechanized Brigade, found dead. Ukraine's 25th Assault Battalion "Lynx" expanded to a regiment. Ukrainian FP-5 “Flamingo” cruise missiles previously hit Titan-Barrikady plant in Volgograd. Russian Geran/Seeker strikes ongoing. New Russian tactic: FPV-on-UGV to strike soldiers. Slavyansk-na-Kubani refinery burning out of control after Ukrainian drone strike. Two Russian aircraft destroyed in Ukrainian strikes on large airbase.
OSINT INTE 22:00 UTC
United States-IRAN DIPLOMACY: / / — US and Iran have agreed to halt strikes and meet this week in Qatar (Doha) on Tuesday to discuss how to stop attacking each other. Axios reports US-Iran will meet in Qatar on Tuesday. Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi visited site where Qasem Soleimani was killed in Iraq. Iran has the sole responsibility of administering the Strait of Hormuz (Araghchi). US-Iran talks have stalled due to recent military action and lack of progress on nuclear issues. Senior Trump administration official says U.S.-Iran talks set for this weekend in Switzerland are still on (contradicts WSJ report of postponement). WSJ: Next round of U.S.-Iran talks postponed to unspecified date following reciprocal strikes.
OSINT INTE 22:00 UTC
UKRAINE / RUSSIA: Ukrainian FP-5 “Flamingo” cruise missiles hit Titan-Barrikady Defense Plant in Volgograd (multiple missiles). Russian Geran/Seeker strikes on trucks, trains, gas station, warehouses, MiG-29 at Voznesensk. New Russian tactic: FPV-on-UGV to strike soldiers. Slavyansk-na-Kubani refinery burning out of control after Ukrainian drone strike. Two Russian aircraft destroyed in Ukrainian strikes on large airbase. Huge Ukrainian drone attack headed toward Moscow. Massive Ukrainian attack on Crimea ongoing, explosions all over including Sevastopol. Volodymyr Kononnikov, commander of Ukraine's 154th Mechanized Brigade, found dead. Ukraine's 25th Assault Battalion "Lynx" expanded to a regiment. ## Section 8 – EBOLA OUTBREAK
OSINT INTE Iraq 22:00 UTC
IRAQ (GREEN ZONE CRACKDOWN): Iraq Crackdowns: Short Assessment - last night’s wave of arrests and crackdowns came after the arrest and confession of Oil Ministry undersecretary Adnan al-Jumaili. 47 individuals, including numerous Iraqi politicians (some loyal to former PM Mohammed Shia' al-Sudani), arrested in sweeping crackdown on corruption. $85 million in money and assets seized since start of crackdown. Iraqi government spokesperson says necessary actions taken to curb corruption. Anti-corruption efforts common when new leadership takes hold in Iraq. Recent wave of arrests (scale) not as common; some outlets characterize as “systemic purge.” Arrests come against backdrop of increase in both U.S.-Iranian competing interests in Iraq, increasing government pressure on Iranian-backed paramilitary forces, and ongoing tension in region between US and Iran. Reasonable possibility that dynamics are directly related to arrests, as PM Ali al-Zaidi has long signaled intention to implement institutional reforms whilst simultaneously being pressured by US to deal with Iranian-backed paramilitary groups.
OSINT INTE Iran 22:00 UTC
IRAN: US strikes on Iranian missile/drone storage locations and coastal radar sites near Strait of Hormuz (CENTCOM footage of communication tower at Shahid Raahbar Naval Base near Sirik; additional round). Bahrain Iranian drone attack (one intercepted, one crashed near airport). IRGC claims targeted 8 US military infrastructure sites in Kuwait and Bahrain.
OSINT INTE Venezuela 22:00 UTC
VENEZUELA: Major earthquakes caused collapsed buildings and infrastructure damage in Caracas and La Guaira; airport disruptions. US and Indian relief flights arriving with search-and-rescue, field hospitals, supplies. Successful rescues ongoing (baby and mother from debris).
OSINT INTE Kyiv 22:00 UTC
KYIV, UKRAINE: Massive Russian ballistic missile attack ongoing; PATRIOT intercepts successful.
OSINT INTE Russia 22:00 UTC
RUSSIA (FUEL): Ongoing shortages from refinery attacks; public impacts. Moscow refinery closure exacerbates.
OSINT INTE Belarus 22:00 UTC
BELARUS: Cut off radio and service provider systems used by Russia for drone guidance into Northern Ukraine.
OSINT INTE Crimea 22:00 UTC
CRIMEA: Ukrainian drones hit major electrical substation; switching yards ablaze, power cuts in capital. Part of grid dismantling campaign. Heavy explosions from drone raid. Strikes on radar and energy infrastructure. Massive Ukrainian attack on Crimea ongoing, explosions all over including Sevastopol.
BREAKING X Iran 18:20 UTC
Kuwait: Iran missiles hit US Al Salem base
BREAKING X Iran 18:20 UTC
Bahrain: Iran drones strike US Fifth Fleet
MARITIME United States 18:20 UTC
Oman: US jets strike Iranian sites Hormuz
FLASH PT Gaza 18:20 UTC
Gaza: Israeli strikes kill civilians ongoing
FLASH PT Lebanon 18:20 UTC
Lebanon: Hezbollah rockets Israel north border
ISW·IRAN United States 18:20 UTC
Bandar Abbas: Explosions after US strikes Iranian targets
ISW·IRAN Iran 18:20 UTC
Hormuz: Iran claims control navigation Strait
ISW·IRAN Tehran 18:20 UTC
Tehran: IRGC launches vs US bases Kuwait/Bahrain
BREAKING X United States 18:20 UTC
Strait Hormuz: US strikes Iranian coastal radar sites
FLASH PT Iran 14:20 UTC
MIDDLE EAST: Ongoing tit-for-tat Iran-US/Israel
CIVIL UNRE 14:20 UTC
GLOBAL: Protests, tensions in multiple flashpoints
CIVIL UNRE Lebanon 14:20 UTC
LEBANON: Heritage sites damaged by IDF strikes
CIVIL UNRE Gaza 14:20 UTC
GAZA: Children suffer ongoing Israeli operations
MARITIME United States 14:20 UTC
GULF: US sinks IRGC vessels; naval clashes
MARITIME 14:20 UTC
STRAIT HORMUZ: CMA CGM ship exits; traffic disrupted
MARITIME Red Sea 14:20 UTC
RED SEA: Houthi threats persist amid Hormuz crisis
FLASH PT Ukraine 14:20 UTC
UKRAINE: RU glide bombs Kharkiv; UA refinery strikes
ISW·IRAN 14:20 UTC
STRAIT HORMUZ: IRGC claims route ctrl; ship hits
ISW·IRAN Lebanon 14:20 UTC
LEBANON: Hezbollah/Iran push vs IDF; heritage damage
ISW·IRAN Iran 14:20 UTC
IRAN: US hits coastal radar, AD after tanker drone
BREAKING X Iran 14:20 UTC
IRAN: US strikes missile/drone sites post-Hormuz
BREAKING X Gaza 14:20 UTC
GAZA: IDF kills Hamas Nukhba cmdr, tunnel head
BREAKING X Ukraine 14:20 UTC
UKRAINE: Ru AF refinery hit; UA strikes oil sites
ISW·GAZA Lebanon 12:20 UTC
Lebanon: IAF strikes south violate ceasefire
CYBER Iran 12:20 UTC
Iran: US CENTCOM re-strike IRGC comms tower Sirik
TURKEY Ankara 12:20 UTC
Ankara: NATO summit prot ban; hundreds detained
INDIA 12:20 UTC
Delhi: Jantar Mantar CJP prot Day9 water cut Sonam
MARITIME 12:20 UTC
Gulf: Ongoing ship attacks Hormuz tensions
CYBER 12:20 UTC
SE Asia: Chinese APT TinyRCT backdoor government energy
IRAQ Baghdad 12:20 UTC
Baghdad: US embassy Green Zone stormed arrests
INFRA Iran 12:20 UTC
Global: Iran hackers target water/OT systems Israel
OSINT INTE Russia 11:00 UTC
RUSSIA (UKRAINE STRIKES): / — Russia's Slavyansk Na Kuban refinery burning out of control this morning after Ukrainian drone strike. Massive smoke plume, overloaded fire monitoring sensor on NOAA-21. Two Russian aircraft destroyed in Ukrainian strikes on a large Russian airbase. Ukrainian FP-5 “Flamingo” cruise missiles previously hit Titan-Barrikady plant in Volgograd. Russian Geran/Seeker strikes ongoing. New Russian tactic: FPV-on-UGV to strike soldiers.
OSINT INTE Iran 11:00 UTC
IRAN: Attacked vessel in Strait of Hormuz with missiles (drone strike). Rejected Omani/IMO transit framework. Warnings that strait closed without permission. IMO suspended evacuation mission. US struck Iranian missile/drone storage and coastal radar sites in response (additional round). Bahrain condemned Iranian drone attack targeting Bahrain (likely US forces); 9 drones shot down. US Air Force tankers active post-strikes. IRGC claims targeted 8 US military infrastructure sites in Kuwait and Bahrain. Both Bahrain and Kuwait dealing with renewed Iranian drone/missile attacks. Air raid sirens in Bahrain. Iran threatening complete exit from talks with US over recent strikes and fired multiple ballistic missiles at Gulf states overnight. Iran's Foreign Ministry says US violated peace agreement and does not value its commitments. Polymarket low odds on final nuclear deal by end of July.
OSINT INTE Iran 11:00 UTC
NUCLEAR / DIPLOMACY: Iran's Foreign Ministry says US violated the peace agreement and "does not place the slightest value and credibility on its commitments." Iran threatening complete exit from talks with US over recent strikes. Polymarket sees only 5% chance of US-Iran final nuclear deal by end of July despite optimism for longer-term deal with concessions. Italy refused US requests for strike missions from Italian bases in war in Iran.
OSINT INTE United States 11:00 UTC
MILITARY / United States: US conducted additional/larger strikes on Iranian targets near Strait of Hormuz in retaliation for Iran targeting another vessel (M/T Kiku) this morning (CENTCOM confirmed; Axios). Iran responded by striking U.S. forces in Bahrain with drones (9 shot down) and targeting Kuwait. IRGC claims targeted 8 US military infrastructure sites. Continued US tanker/fighter activity over Strait in cat-and-mouse with Iranian naval gunboats and air defence (despite ceasefire). Previous Senate resolution limiting Trump on resuming ops. Bahrain Iranian drone attack (retaliation for US strikes). Air raid sirens in Bahrain. ## Section 6 – MARITIME & AIRSPACE
OSINT INTE Ukraine 11:00 UTC
UKRAINE / RUSSIA: Ukrainian FP-5 “Flamingo” cruise missiles hit Titan-Barrikady Defense Plant in Volgograd (multiple missiles). Russian Geran/Seeker strikes on trucks, trains, gas station, warehouses, MiG-29 at Voznesensk. New Russian tactic: FPV-on-UGV to strike soldiers. Slavyansk-na-Kubani refinery burning out of control after Ukrainian drone strike. Two Russian aircraft destroyed in Ukrainian strikes on large airbase. ## Section 8 – EBOLA OUTBREAK
OSINT INTE 11:00 UTC
RUSSIA: Moscow refinery shut until 2027 from drone strikes; massive fuel disruption. Preparing October mobilisation; could announce as early as September due to battlefield losses exceeding recruitment. Belarus cutting Russian drone guidance systems into Northern Ukraine. Trump notes tide turning against Russia in Ukraine. Massive ballistic missile attack on Kyiv ongoing. Colonel Koziura treason conviction. Russian security services attempting to locate key Ukrainian officials in Kyiv for potential assassinations. Geran/Seeker strikes on Ukrainian targets; new FPV-on-UGV tactic. Ukrainian Flamingo cruise missiles hit Titan-Barrikady plant in Volgograd. Slavyansk-na-Kubani refinery burning out of control after Ukrainian drone strike. Two Russian aircraft destroyed in Ukrainian strikes on large airbase.
OSINT INTE United Kingdom 11:00 UTC
United Kingdom (DOMESTIC / TRAFFICKING): Human trafficker helping illegal migrants crossing the English Channel has contacts within British government tipping him off to avoid security checks at Dover.
OSINT INTE Russia 11:00 UTC
RUSSIA (MOBILISATION): Russian authorities in panic; could announce mobilisation as early as September as current battlefield losses exceed recruitment numbers.
OSINT INTE Iran 11:00 UTC
IRAN (United States STRIKES / IRAN RESPONSE): / / — Iran's Foreign Ministry says US violated the peace agreement and "does not place the slightest value and credibility on its commitments." US airforce hit Iran again tonight after more ships targeted by drones in Strait of Hormuz. CENTCOM released footage of strikes on 10 Iranian military targets in/around Strait in response to drone attack on M/T Kiku. US strikes tonight “is complete.” CENTCOM confirms additional strikes. Targets: Iranian military surveillance infrastructure, communication systems, air defense sites, drone storage facilities, minelayer capabilities, cruise missile capabilities, targeting radars, surface-to-air missile systems. IRGC claims targeted 8 US military infrastructure sites in Kuwait (Ali Salem Air Base) and Bahrain (US Fifth Fleet HQ). Both Bahrain and Kuwait dealing with renewed Iranian drone/missile attacks. Air raid sirens sounding in Bahrain this morning as country comes under another Iranian attack. Iran threatening complete exit from talks with US over recent strikes and fired multiple ballistic missiles at Gulf states overnight.
ISW·IRAN Iran 10:20 UTC
Hormuz: Iran drone strikes tanker; traffic halted
ISW·IRAN Iran 10:20 UTC
Iran: US hits missile/drone sites, radars after attacks
BREAKING X 10:20 UTC
Gulf: IRGC adopts dark shipping vs sanctions
BREAKING X Baghdad 10:20 UTC
Baghdad: Iran FM claims Hormuz mgmt sole Tehran duty
BREAKING X United States 10:20 UTC
Strait Hormuz: US strikes Iran targets post-tanker drone hit
MARITIME Iran 10:20 UTC
Hormuz: UN IMO halts evacuation after Iran attack
FLASH PT Gaza 10:20 UTC
Gaza: Ongoing operations; civilian toll rises
FLASH PT Ukraine 10:20 UTC
Ukraine: Russia slow gains Donetsk; high costs
FLASH PT Lebanon 10:20 UTC
Lebanon: Israel strikes kill 2; shaky ceasefire
RUSSIA Ukraine 06:20 UTC
UKRAINE: UKR DRONE HITS TULA CHEM PLANT AGAIN
ISW·IRAN Iran 06:20 UTC
IRAN: CEASEFIRE COLLAPSE; TIT-FOR-TAT ESCALATES
ISW·IRAN Iran 06:20 UTC
IRAN: IRGC THREATENS MAJOR US BASE STRIKES
ISW·IRAN Iran 06:20 UTC
IRAN: IRAN FIRES MISSILES AT US SITES KUWAIT/BAHRAIN
US Iran 06:20 UTC
IRAN: US HITS MISSILE/DRONE SITES QESHM COAST
CIVIL UNRE Kharkiv 03:20 UTC
Kharkiv: Russian strike kills civilians apt
MARITIME Crimea 03:20 UTC
Crimea: Ukraine pressure power outages
MARITIME Iran 03:20 UTC
Kuwait: Iran retaliation strikes reported
FLASH PT Gaza 03:20 UTC
Gaza/Lebanon: Israel strikes Hezbollah sites
FLASH PT Russia 03:20 UTC
Russia: Ukraine drones hit chem plant Tula
FLASH PT Ukraine 03:20 UTC
Ukraine: Drone/artillery kills civilians border
ISW·IRAN United States 03:20 UTC
Bahrain: IRGC claims hits US sites post-strike
MARITIME Iran 03:20 UTC
Strait Hormuz: Iran drones hit tanker; US jets strike
ISW·IRAN Tehran 03:20 UTC
Tehran: US strikes Iran targets Hormuz retaliation
BREAKING X Iran 02:20 UTC
IRAN / STRAIT OF HORMUZ: [ / ] — US strikes on Iranian targets and Strait sites following reported Iranian drone attacks on shipping. IRGC claims strikes on US sites in Kuwait/Bahrain (Ali Salem AB, Fifth Fleet HQ). Retaliatory cycle active.
BREAKING X Iraq 02:20 UTC
IRAQ: [ / ] — Iraqi SOF and Army M1 Abrams/MRAPs active in Green Zone (approx. 33.3109, 44.3910). Multiple politicians arrested including pro-Iranian Alia Nassif and Sunni Muthanna al-Samarrai amid PM Ali al-Zaidi corruption crackdown. Ongoing, unconfirmed scope of cross-spectrum arrests.
ISW·UKR Russia 02:02 UTC
Russia: Russian forces launched two cruise missiles and 216 drones toward Ukraine overnight
ISW·UKR Ukraine 02:02 UTC
Ukraine: Ukrainian forces continue strikes against Russian military assets in border regions
ISW·UKR Ukraine 02:02 UTC
Druzhkivka, Ukraine: Russian forces recently advanced in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area
ISW·UKR Ukraine 02:02 UTC
Ukraine: Romanian and Ukrainian authorities reported that Russian electronic warfare (EW) systems caused a Ukrainian unmanned surface vehicle (USV) to enter Romanian territorial waters at the Port of Constanta on June 5
ISW·UKR Ukraine 02:02 UTC
Sea of Azov: Ukrainian forces are expanding their battlefield air interdiction (BAI) campaign to strike Russian naval vessels and railway infrastructure in occupied southern Ukraine and in the Sea of Azov
ISW·UKR Ukraine 02:02 UTC
Ukraine: Putin also used his SPIEF remarks to posture economic strength, ignoring Russia’s economic realities from over four years of war
ISW·UKR Ukraine 02:02 UTC
Ukraine: Russian officials, including Putin, are again leaning on the lack of clear information about the August 2025 Alaska Summit to falsely portray Russia as willing to negotiate with Ukraine
ISW·UKR Ukraine 02:02 UTC
Ukraine: Russian advances have largely stagnated while Ukrainian forces have achieved some tactical successes in 2026
ISW·UKR Ukraine 02:02 UTC
Ukraine: Putin’s claims about the battlefield are incompatible with available evidence and suggest that the Russian military command is not providing Putin accurate intelligence about the reality of Russian battlefield performance
ISW·UKR Russia 02:02 UTC
Russia: Putin also reiterated his belief that Russian forces’ military victory is inevitable, despite available data indicating otherwise
ISW·UKR Russia 02:02 UTC
Russia: Russian President Vladimir Putin rejected Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s offer to negotiate an end to the war and reiterated the Kremlin’s commitment to fulfilling its war goals
ISW·IRAN Iran 02:02 UTC
Iran: Iranian officials and media are highlighting the growing ties between the UAE and Israel, likely to try to exploit anti-Israel sentiment among Gulf states to drive a wedge between the UAE and its Gulf neighbors
ISW·IRAN 02:02 UTC
Iran: Iran and Hezbollah continue to link Israeli capitulation in Lebanon to US-Iran negotiations to try to delay discussions about key points of disagreement between the United States and Iran, particularly Iran's nuclear program and its efforts to control the Strait of Hormuz
ISW·IRAN Iran 02:02 UTC
Iran: Hezbollah and Iran’s maximalist demands seek to undermine US and Lebanese government efforts to end the conflict with Israel and restrict weapons to the Lebanese state
ISW Iran 02:02 UTC
Iran: This would go against PRC assertions that it does not provide military equipment to states engaged in war and may be in violation of UN sanctions on Iran
ISW Iran 02:02 UTC
Iran: PRC-Iran Military Cooperation: The PRC may have provided MANDPADS to Iran that were used to target US aircraft
ISW Taiwan 02:02 UTC
Global: The removal of funds for domestic drone development and procurement from Taiwan’s special defense budget may limit such technological developments in the near future
ISW Ukraine 02:02 UTC
Global: This development is a reflection of Taiwanese lessons learned from the war in Ukraine and attempts to incorporate these new systems into Taiwan’s defense against a PLA invasion
ISW 02:02 UTC
Global: Taiwanese Defense Modernization: Taiwanese defense firm AIDC announced that it developed a drone navigation system not reliant on GPS signals
ISW Japan 02:02 UTC
Global: Japan and the Philippines are also working to delimit their overlapping EEZ claims, which also overlap with Taiwanese and PRC territorial claims
ISW Japan 02:02 UTC
Global: Japan-Philippines Coalition Building Efforts: Japan and the Philippines are enhancing their bilateral defense relationship through military technology transfers and intelligence sharing
ISW·IRAN Iran 02:02 UTC
Iran: Any Iraqi federal government attempt to disarm the militias and integrate them into the Iraqi security establishment that does not address the militias’ networks and allegiance to Iran will likely further embed Iranian influence within the Iraqi state
ISW·IRAN Iraq 02:02 UTC
Iraq: Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al Zaydi is also reportedly pursuing a plan, approved by unidentified framework leaders, in which disarmed militia members would integrate into other Iraqi security institutions, such as the Counter Terrorism Service (CTS)
ISW·IRAN Iran 02:02 UTC
Iran: The Iraqi federal government has begun to try to restrict arms to the state through the disarmament and integration of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias into the Iraqi security establishment, including the Iranian-backed Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF)
ISW·IRAN Iran 02:02 UTC
Iran: This comment reflects how the Iranian regime does not solely seek to survive this war and return to the pre-war status quo; the regime has positive objectives that it seeks to achieve, including securing Iranian sovereignty over the strait
ISW·IRAN Iran 02:02 UTC
Iran: A newspaper linked to the Supreme Leader’s office argued on June 2 that the status of the Strait of Hormuz will not return to its pre-war status
ISW·IRAN Iran 02:02 UTC
Iran: Iranian officials have continued to emphasize the Lebanon issue in order to try to deflect focus away from key points of disagreement in the US-Iran negotiations, particularly the Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s nuclear program, which the regime seeks to avoid making concessions on
ISW·IRAN Iran 02:02 UTC
Iran: Hezbollah Secretary General Naim Qassem acknowledged Iran’s role in pushing for a complete ceasefire in Lebanon and noted that Iran’s push for a complete ceasefire is an “integral part” of Iran’s own efforts against the United States
ISW·IRAN Iran 02:02 UTC
Iran: Hezbollah and Iranian leaders are unified in viewing Israeli capitulation in Lebanon as inextricable from Iranian negotiations with the United States
ISW·IRAN Iran 02:02 UTC
Iran: Hezbollah and Iran’s insistence on this demand is part of an effort to defer negotiations about key points of disagreement between Iran and the United States, particularly Iranian efforts to control the Strait of Hormuz, and strengthen Iran’s negotiating position vis-à-vis the United States
ISW·IRAN Iran 02:02 UTC
Iran: Hezbollah and Iranian leaders continue to reject any ceasefire framework in Lebanon that does not meet their maximalist demand for total Israeli capitulation in Lebanon
ISW·UKR Russia 02:02 UTC
Russia: Russian forces launched one Iskander-M ballistic missile and 293 drones against Ukraine overnight
ISW·UKR Russia 02:02 UTC
Russia: The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) demonstrated a new battle management information system for Russian forces operating in Ukraine that Russia will likely deploy with international exercise partners during Russia’s Center 2026 strategic command-and-staff exercise in September
ISW·UKR Ukraine 02:02 UTC
Ukraine: Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) and instead presented a facade of economic stability
ISW·UKR Ukraine 02:02 UTC
Ukraine: Russian officials continued to ignore the economic problems and fuel shortages that Russia is facing at the St
ISW·UKR Ukraine 02:02 UTC
Ukraine: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky sent an open letter to Russian President Vladimir Putin on June 4 proposing an immediate ceasefire along the current frontline and a face-to-face bilateral meeting in a third country to end the war
ISW Ukraine 02:02 UTC
Global: Russian Deputy Prime Minister for Construction and Regional Development Marat Khusnullin visited occupied Ukraine in late May
ISW Ukraine 02:02 UTC
Global: Occupation courts throughout occupied Ukraine continue to sentence Ukrainians to extensive prison terms on tenuous treason and espionage allegations
ISW Russia 02:02 UTC
Global: Russia continues to illegally prosecute Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) under “terrorism” charges in clear violation of international humanitarian law
ISW Ukraine 02:02 UTC
Global: Russian occupation officials continue to downplay the severity of fuel shortages and present a facade of an effective government response in order to obscure the wartime challenges of their illegitimate occupation of Ukraine
ISW 02:02 UTC
Global: Russian occupation officials continue to use social benefit incentives to increase the birth rates in occupied areas
ISW Ukraine 02:02 UTC
Global: The municipal and regional stages of the Zarnitsa 2.0 military-patriotic competition continue in occupied Ukraine
ISW Ukraine 02:02 UTC
Global: Enrollment in Yunarmia (Russian Young Army Cadets National Movement) appears to be increasing in occupied Ukraine
ISW Ukraine 02:02 UTC
Global: Russian officials continue to fund and facilitate the temporary deportation and transfer of Ukrainian children to summer camps in occupied Ukraine and Russia
ISW Russia 02:02 UTC
Russia: A Kremlin-appointed Russian occupation official admitted that Russia has continued to place Ukrainian children up for fostering and adoption with Russian families in 2026
ISW·UKR Russia 02:02 UTC
Russia: Russian forces launched one Iskander-M ballistic missile/S-400 air defense missile, and 232 long-range drones at Ukraine overnight
ISW·UKR Ukraine 02:02 UTC
Ukraine: A Russian state-owned polling institution indicated that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s approval ratings fell again following a slight increase that interrupted weeks of falling approval ratings
ISW·UKR Ukraine 02:02 UTC
Ukraine: Russia is reportedly allowing private businesses to purchase air defense and counter-drone systems as Russia seeks to offset the cost of its increased air defense needs on Russian federal subjects and entities outside of the federal government
ISW·UKR Russia 02:02 UTC
Russia: Senior Kremlin officials are leaning into two separate responses to the drone strike in Romania that together aim to deflect Russia’s responsibility for the drone incident, falsely blame Ukraine, and test NATO’s response to Russian drone incursions
ISW·UKR Ukraine 02:02 UTC
Ukraine: A Russian Geran-2 drone struck a multi-story apartment complex in Galati, Romania, on the evening of May 28-29
ISW·IRAN Israel 02:02 UTC
Israel: Hezbollah, subsequently, appears to be dictating the pace of adaptation to the IDF at this time by quickly overcoming relatively rudimentary Israeli countermeasures
ISW·IRAN Iran 02:02 UTC
Iran: Hezbollah has adapted to increasing IDF night operations by fielding thermal camera-equipped first-person view (FPV) drones that enable nighttime attacks, after the IDF began nighttime operations to make it harder for Hezbollah to launch FPV drone attacks on them
ISW·IRAN 02:02 UTC
Iran: It is unclear on which day the UAE strikes began, based on this reporting, but Iran first struck Gulf energy infrastructure on March 1, when it hit a structure at Jabel Ali Port’s oil terminal in Dubai, UAE, and Ras Tanura Refinery in Dhahran, Saudi Arabia
ISW·IRAN Iran 02:02 UTC
Iran: Saudi officials complained to the United States in early April that the UAE’s involvement in US-Israeli airstrikes on Iran increased the risk that Iran would target regional energy facilities, according to the Wall Street Journal
ISW·IRAN Iran 02:02 UTC
Iran: US Central Command (CENTCOM) denied Iranian claims that Iranian air defense systems downed US aircraft near Bushehr Province in southern Iran on May 28
ISW·IRAN Iran 02:02 UTC
Iran: The US Treasury Department has sanctioned five front companies supporting the Iranian Armed Forces General Staff-controlled Sepehr Energy Jahan Nama Pars Company on May 28, for facilitating Iranian oil shipments, including exports to the People’s Republic of China
ISW·IRAN Iran 02:02 UTC
Iran: Iranian officials continue to indicate that Iran will not accept or make concessions on US President Donald Trump’s most recent demands regarding Iran’s nuclear program, which include not producing a nuclear weapon and agreeing to “destroy” or move its highly enriched uranium (HEU) stockpile
ISW·IRAN Iran 02:02 UTC
Iran: US Central Command has continued to respond to Iranian efforts to use force to create the reality that Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz, most recently by issuing a notice to mariners and airmen on May 29 that the US Navy will conduct military operations north of the Musandam Peninsula in the Strait of Hormuz
ISW·IRAN Iran 02:02 UTC
Iran: These Iranian demands would be a fundamental change to long-held international maritime law and are at odds with the free flow of commerce
ISW·IRAN Iran 02:02 UTC
Iran: Iran’s demands for “control” of the Strait of Hormuz directly contradict Trump’s position
ISW·IRAN Iran 02:02 UTC
Iran: Iran has, in recent days, used force to try to create the reality that Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz
ISW·IRAN Iran 02:02 UTC
Iran: US President Donald Trump called for the Strait of Hormuz to “immediately open” without tolls and with the removal of mines
ISW Japan 02:02 UTC
Global: Delays in the planned delivery of Tomahawk missiles to Japan may hinder Japan’s military modernization plans and deterrence capability
ISW Taiwan 02:02 UTC
Global: A US decision to suspend an arms sale to Taiwan would likely undermine Taiwanese confidence in the US commitment to Taiwan’s defense
ISW 02:02 UTC
Global: The PRC did not block a Taiwanese minister-level official from participating in APEC in the PRC, in an exception to its usual obstruction of Taiwanese participation in international forums
ISW Ukraine 02:02 UTC
Global: The Russian government continues efforts to incentivize investment in occupied Ukraine.  Russia continues efforts to build up occupied Ukraine as an attractive tourist destination
ISW Crimea 02:02 UTC
Crimea: The Crimea occupation administration is attempting to obscure its inability to address fuel shortages that are resulting from ongoing Ukrainian strikes against Russia’s fuel capacity
ISW 02:02 UTC
Global: The Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs (MVD) has proposed measures to simplify the renunciation of Ukrainian citizenship in occupied areas
ISW Ukraine 02:02 UTC
Mariupol, Ukraine: The Mariupol occupation administration has reportedly launched a large-scale wave of evictions
ISW Crimea 02:02 UTC
Crimea: Russia is institutionalizing drone training programs in educational institutions in occupied Crimea
ISW Ukraine 02:02 UTC
Zaporizhia, Ukraine: The Zaporizhia Oblast occupation administration is preparing to further codify the supremacy of Russian language use in occupied Ukraine
ISW Ukraine 02:02 UTC
Global: Russian social and ethnic affairs policy in occupied Ukraine continues to be solely premised on Russification and the eradication of any distinct Ukrainian identities
ISW Russia 02:02 UTC
Global: The Russian government continues to fund University Shifts — a federal initiative that temporarily transfers Ukrainian teenagers to Russia to attend university classes with the goal of exposing youth to Russian values and forging long-term ties with the Russian state
ISW Russia 02:02 UTC
Global: Russia continues to pursue a policy of deporting Ukrainian prisoners, including female political detainees, to penal colonies in Russia
ISW·UKR Russia 02:02 UTC
Russia: Russian forces launched one Kinzhal aeroballistic missile and 147 long-range drones at Ukraine overnight
ISW·UKR Ukraine 02:02 UTC
Ukraine: Ukrainian forces recently advanced in northern in the Velykyi Burluk and Oleksandrivka directions
ISW·UKR Ukraine 02:02 UTC
Ukraine: Zelensky stated that the Gripens will help Ukraine defend against Russian guided glide bombs
ISW·UKR Ukraine 02:02 UTC
Ukraine: Sweden pledged a total of 36 Gripen fighter aircraft to Ukraine in a large military support package on May 28
ISW·UKR Ukraine 02:02 UTC
Ukraine: Russia continues to struggle to defend against Ukraine’s mid-range strike campaign and is reportedly resorting to war crimes to protect Russian military vehicles in the rear
ISW·UKR Moscow 02:02 UTC
Moscow, Russia: Russian forces are reinforcing air defenses in Moscow City in response to Ukraine’s growing long-range drone campaign against the Russian deep rear
ISW·UKR Ukraine 02:02 UTC
Ukraine: The Russian military command’s exaggerations are likely leading Putin to believe his forces can achieve his battlefield goals in the near to medium term, despite the fact that Russia’s battlefield performance has steadily declined in 2026
ISW·UKR Ukraine 02:02 UTC
Kupyansk, Ukraine: The Russian military command’s exaggerated claims about the Kupyansk area since late Summer 2025 show a larger pattern within the Russian military of misrepresenting the battlefield geometry at the highest levels
ISW·UKR Ukraine 02:02 UTC
Ukraine: Russian President Vladimir Putin has likely developed a false perception of the Russian military’s successes in Ukraine based on heavily exaggerated maps from the Russian high military command
ISW·IRAN Iran 02:02 UTC
Iran: The US Treasury Department sanctioned the Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA) on May 27 and warned that any actor that cooperates with the PGSA could face sanctions
ISW·IRAN Iran 02:02 UTC
Iran: The United States is taking steps to prevent Iranian efforts to establish a protection racket in the Strait of Hormuz
ISW·IRAN Iran 02:02 UTC
Iran: US Central Command’s (CENTCOM) recent military strikes against Iran are part of an effort to deny Iran the ability to create that reality
ISW·IRAN Iran 02:02 UTC
Iran: The IRGC is using force to try to create the reality that Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz
ISW·IRAN Iran 02:02 UTC
Iran: Mojtaba’s recent public statements indicate that he is not willing to give up Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz
ISW·IRAN Iran 02:02 UTC
Iran: Even if Iranian negotiators did offer some concessions, it is far from clear that senior decision-makers in Tehran, including Mojtaba and IRGC Commander Major General Ahmad Vahidi, are willing to make such concessions
ISW·IRAN Iran 02:02 UTC
Iran: The details of the reported “agreement” are also unclear based on the wording and sourcing of the leaks of the agreement
ISW·IRAN Iran 02:02 UTC
Iran: Western media reported on May 28 that US and Iranian negotiators have reached a 60-day memorandum of understanding (MoU), but the US and Iranian leaders who must approve the agreement—US President Donald Trump and Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, respectively—have not approved the “agreement” at this time
ISW·UKR Ukraine 02:02 UTC
Slovyansk, Ukraine: Ukrainian forces advanced in Sumy Oblast and in the Borova, Slovyansk, and Pokrovsk directions and in western Zaporizhia Oblast
ISW·UKR Ukraine 02:02 UTC
Ukraine: Ukrainian forces struck occupied Starobilsk, Luhansk Oblast, overnight on May 21 to 22
ISW·UKR Ukraine 02:02 UTC
Ukraine: Ukraine’s mid-range strike campaign is disrupting Russian transport arteries in occupied Ukraine and will likely complicate Russian logistics
ISW·UKR Russia 02:02 UTC
Russia: Western officials are increasingly reporting that Ukraine is hindering Russia’s advances in Ukraine, in line with ISW’s consistent assessments, but that the Kremlin likely remains committed to its original war aims despite some recognition within the Russian elite that the war is not going well
ISW·IRAN Iran 02:02 UTC
Iran: Recognition or compliance with Iranian transit rules would allow the regime to achieve de facto control over the strait
ISW·IRAN Iran 02:02 UTC
Iran: The war cannot end in a way that secures US and allied interests until Iran abandons its effort to control the strait
ISW·IRAN Iran 02:02 UTC
Iran: The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps Navy claimed on May 22 that 35 vessels transited the strait in the past 24 hours after obtaining Iranian “permission” and “security.” This “security” is effectively protection from attacks by Iranian forces, which is the only force that has threatened shipping in the Strait of Hormuz since February 2026
ISW·IRAN Iran 02:02 UTC
Iran: Iran has launched an information operation to frame its protection racket in the Strait of Hormuz as a legitimate maritime security service
ISW·IRAN Iran 02:02 UTC
Iran: It is unclear from public reporting where specifically “progress” was made
ISW·IRAN Iran 02:02 UTC
Iran: The US-Iran negotiations have reportedly made “slight progress,” but Iran’s highly enriched uranium (HEU) and the Strait of Hormuz remain the two key sticking points in negotiations
ISW Russia 02:02 UTC
Global: Xi and Putin signaled continued strong bilateral relations, but they failed to reach an agreement on the Power of Siberia-2 pipeline, a key priority for Russia
ISW 02:02 UTC
Global: CCP Secretary General Xi Jinping met with Russian President Vladimir Putin on May 20
ISW 02:02 UTC
Global: The PRC will likely seek to exploit US statements and policy to decrease Taiwanese faith in US support
ISW United States 02:02 UTC
Global: The United States announced a pause of a 14 billion US dollar arms sale to Taiwan on May 21
ISW Taiwan 02:02 UTC
Global: US President Donald Trump stated that US arms sales to Taiwan were under consideration and suggested that they could be used as a “negotiating chip” with the PRC while cautioning Taiwan against seeking independence
ISW·UKR Russia 02:02 UTC
Russia: Russian forces launched one ballistic missile and 116 drones toward Ukraine overnight
ISW·UKR Russia 02:02 UTC
Russia: The Kremlin is attempting to manipulate Russian media coverage to downplay the Kremlin’s censorship campaign, likely to improve the public perception of the United Russia Party ahead of the September 2026 State Duma elections
ISW·UKR Ukraine 02:02 UTC
Ukraine: Russia continues to tap into its gold reserves to cover its budget deficit
ISW·UKR Ukraine 02:02 UTC
Ukraine: Ukrainian strikes continue to constrain Russian oil refining and energy revenues, even as the war in the Middle East has provided a budget windfall in the short term
ISW·UKR Ukraine 02:02 UTC
Ukraine: Russia and Belarus completed their combined nuclear exercises on May 21, highlighting Russia’s ability to leverage Belarus for future Russian military operations and Russia’s deepening de facto control over Belarus
ISW·IRAN Iran 02:02 UTC
Iran: The PRC has sent missile components, according to US officials familiar with intelligence assessments, speaking to CNN
ISW·IRAN Iran 02:02 UTC
Iran: The People’s Republic of China (PRC) and Russia are helping Iran reconstitute its drone and missile program
ISW·IRAN Iran 02:02 UTC
Iran: The drone program relies on less complex and more easily-produced systems compared to the ballistic missile program, which requires huge facilities with extremely specialized equipment (like planetary mixers for solid fuel, for example)
ISW·IRAN Iran 02:02 UTC
Iran: Iran’s drone program is far more difficult to degrade for long periods of time compared to the ballistic missile program
ISW·IRAN Iran 02:02 UTC
Iran: Iran is continuing to use the ceasefire period to reconstitute its drone and missile program
ISW·IRAN Iran 02:02 UTC
Iran: Iran continues to attempt to build support for its protection racket in the Persian Gulf, in which vessels must pay, coordinate with, or receive permission from Iran’s preferred mechanism to transit the Strait of Hormuz in order to avoid attacks from Iranian forces
ISW·IRAN Iran 02:02 UTC
Iran: Iran’s demands over the Strait of Hormuz demonstrate that Iranian officials believe they won the war because formalizing Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz is a territorial claim on the sovereign territory of another country
ISW·IRAN Iran 02:02 UTC
Iran: Iranian officials have coalesced around demands to formalize Iranian control over Strait of Hormuz transit, in contrast to their apparent division over the nuclear file
ISW·IRAN Iran 02:02 UTC
Iran: The reporting does not clarify the seniority of the Iranian leakers or clarify their motives, but the contents of the leaks about the alleged directive from Mojtaba and subsequent denials suggest disagreement within the Iranian regime over nuclear concessions
ISW·IRAN Iran 02:02 UTC
Iran: Iranian officials appear divided over potential nuclear concessions, especially whether Iran should send its highly enriched uranium (HEU) stockpile abroad
ISW·IRAN Iran 02:02 UTC
Iran: Both US and Iranian officials said on May 21 that nuclear weapons and the Strait of Hormuz remain the two “sticking points” on negotiations
ISW·IRAN Iran 02:02 UTC
Iran: Iran has not submitted a response to the latest US proposal as multiple mediators continue efforts to narrow gaps between the United States and Iran
ISW Ukraine 02:02 UTC
Mariupol, Ukraine: Russia is implementing plans to restart production at the Ilyich Steel and Iron Works Plant in occupied Mariupol
ISW Ukraine 02:02 UTC
Global: The Russian government is moving towards formalizing lower barriers of entry to purchasing real estate in occupied Ukraine via the federal Territorial Development Fund
ISW Ukraine 02:02 UTC
Global: Russian occupation officials and development companies continue efforts to incentivize Russian investment and facilitate potential resettlement in occupied Ukraine
ISW Ukraine 02:02 UTC
Global: Russian majority state-owned VTB Bank continues to spread its influence in occupied Ukraine via savings accounts
ISW Russia 02:02 UTC
Global: Luhansk Oblast occupation officials introduced a system to automatically assign newborns SNILS (individual insurance account registration numbers), integrating them into Russia’s coercive bureaucracy from birth
ISW Ukraine 02:02 UTC
Mariupol, Ukraine: Russian video game developers have designed a game meant to emulate and valorize the first few months of the Russian occupation of Mariupol
ISW Ukraine 02:02 UTC
Global: The Russian Presidential Fund for Cultural Initiatives (PFKI) is spending billions of rubles on the “cultural integration” of occupied Ukraine
ISW Russia 02:02 UTC
Global: Russia continues to facilitate the temporary deportation of teenagers to Russia for military-style training or psychological rehabilitation
ISW Russia 02:02 UTC
Global: Russian officials are preparing to transfer a child from the Oleshky Boarding School to Russia for a medical operation, potentially in violation of international humanitarian law
ISW·UKR Ukraine 02:02 UTC
Ukraine: Ukrainian forces struck Russian oil infrastructure in Ryazan Oblast, naval assets in the Republic of Dagestan, and aircraft in Krasnodar Krai
ISW·UKR Ukraine 02:02 UTC
Kostyantynivka, Ukraine: Ukrainian forces advanced in the Kharkiv and Kostyantynivka directions.  Russian forces launched six missiles and 141 drones toward Ukraine overnight
ISW·UKR Ukraine 02:02 UTC
Ukraine: Russia and Ukraine each exchanged 250 prisoners on May 15 as part of the larger 1000-for-1000 prisoner exchange they agreed to as part of the Victory Day ceasefire
ISW·UKR Ukraine 02:02 UTC
Ukraine: A Russian state-owned polling institution recently began door-to-door surveys and recorded slightly higher approval and trust ratings for Russian President Vladimir Putin after falling for weeks
ISW·UKR Ukraine 02:02 UTC
Ukraine: Sanctions relief for Russia, particularly when coupled with the slowing supplies of Patriot interceptors to Ukraine, would increase the already significant threat that Russian missile strikes pose to Ukraine
ISW·UKR Kyiv 02:02 UTC
Kyiv, Ukraine: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned that Russia has been reconnoitering decision-making centers in and near Kyiv City for possible future strikes
ISW·UKR Ukraine 02:02 UTC
Ukraine: Russian President Vladimir Putin is positively portraying data about Russia’s economic performance that actually shows a strained economy
ISW·IRAN Iran 02:02 UTC
Iran: Iranian-backed Iraqi militia leaders and political figures are threatening to withdraw their support for new Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al Zaidi’s government amid US pressure to deny Iranian-backed figures positions of influence in the Iraqi government.  US authorities charged senior Iranian-backed Iraqi militia Kataib Hezbollah commander Mohammad Baqer Saad Dawoud al Saadi with planning attacks targeting civilians in the United States, Canada, and Europe
ISW·IRAN Israel 02:02 UTC
Israel: The US State Department announced on May 15 that Israel and Lebanon have agreed to extend the temporary ceasefire for an additional 45 days
ISW·IRAN Iran 02:02 UTC
Iran: The recent war has showcased the UAE’s adoption of a more assertive posture against Iran amid its deepening security ties with Israel
ISW·IRAN Iran 02:02 UTC
Iran: Iran could theoretically attack Gulf states under the guise of targeting US assets in each country, even under such a pact
ISW·IRAN Iran 02:02 UTC
Iran: Unspecified Western diplomats told Western media on May 14 that Saudi Arabia is discussing pursuing a potential non-aggression pact with Iran after the war, but it is unclear how much meaningful progress there has been towards such a pact
ISW·IRAN Iran 02:02 UTC
Iran: This reflects a broader strategy that Gulf states are adopting to safeguard energy exports from future disruption through chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz
ISW·IRAN Iran 02:02 UTC
Iran: The United Arab Emirates (UAE) announced on May 15 that it will accelerate efforts to double the export capacity in Fujairah to bypass the Strait of Hormuz and reduce the UAE’s strategic vulnerability
ISW·IRAN Iran 02:02 UTC
Iran: The Iranian regime is attempting to ease economic pressures that the US naval blockade on Iranian ports is imposing upon the Iranian economy by taking measures to preserve necessary economic resources, while attempting to keep the Iranian public calm ahead of expected shortages
ISW·IRAN Iran 02:02 UTC
Iran: Iran may have decided to deprioritize certain restrictive measures in the Strait of Hormuz, such as toll collection, in order to encourage states such as the PRC to cooperate with Iran and implicitly recognize its control over the strait
ISW·IRAN Iran 02:01 UTC
Iran: Iran’s assertion of control over the strait is inconsistent with the long-stated PRC position, however
ISW·IRAN Iran 02:01 UTC
Iran: The People’s Republic of China (PRC) does not appear to have made a clear commitment to support US efforts to secure freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz
ISW·IRAN Iran 02:01 UTC
Iran: Senior Iranian officials continue to demand guarantees against future US-Israeli attacks as a precondition for negotiations, and the Iranian regime likely views recognized control over the Strait of Hormuz as one such guarantee
ISW Taiwan 02:01 UTC
Global: Unnamed sources within the Taiwanese military stated that these deployments would help deter a PLA invasion of Taiwan
ISW Taiwan 02:01 UTC
Global: Taiwanese Military Developments: Taiwan’s military plans to deploy its HIMARS to the outlying islands of Penghu and Dongyin
ISW 02:01 UTC
Global: Their discussions focused primarily on economic and trade-related issues; neither side strayed from established policy and rhetoric when speaking on geopolitical topics
ISW 02:01 UTC
Global: US-PRC Diplomatic Engagement: US President Donald Trump met with CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping from May 13 to 15
ISW·UKR Ukraine 02:01 UTC
Ukraine: Russian commanders continue to order Russian soldiers to commit war crimes in Ukraine
ISW·UKR Moscow 02:01 UTC
Moscow, Russia: The Kremlin is increasing its efforts to censor reactions to Ukrainian strikes against Moscow City, suggesting that it is growing concerned about its inability to protect the Russian rear
ISW·UKR Ukraine 02:01 UTC
Ukraine: Shuvayev, who has been in command of units that have reportedly committed war crimes in Ukraine, is part of the new “elite” Putin is forming in the Russian government through the “Time of Heroes” program
ISW·UKR Russia 02:01 UTC
Russia: The Kremlin continues to replace border oblast governors, likely to scapegoat regional officials for broader border security failures
ISW·UKR Kyiv 02:01 UTC
Kyiv, Ukraine: The large-scale strike against Kyiv City did not violate the Russian-Ukrainian Victory Day ceasefire but nonetheless demonstrates that Russia is a bad faith negotiator
ISW·UKR Kyiv 02:01 UTC
Kyiv, Ukraine: Russian forces have conducted two days of nearly continuous strikes against Ukraine with over 1,600 total long-range drones and missiles that heavily targeted Kyiv City and resulted in high civilian casualties
ISW·IRAN Iran 02:01 UTC
Iran: PRC companies have been reportedly discussing arms sales routed via third-party countries with Iranian officials, but currently it is unclear to what extent PRC officials have decided to approve these sales and subsequent weapons shipments, according to New York Times reporting on May 13 that cited US officials
ISW·IRAN Iran 02:01 UTC
Iran: The PRC only explicitly opposes the toll system and the Iranian “blockade,” but has not explicitly opposed Iranian claims to sovereignty, for example
ISW·IRAN Iran 02:01 UTC
Iran: Recognizing Iran’s protocol — which bars certain countries from accessing the strait and not others based on their behavior — is unacceptable because it implies that the Strait of Hormuz is sovereign Iranian territory
ISW·IRAN Iran 02:01 UTC
Iran: Iran is likely prioritizing the implementation of the protocol over the tolls at this time in order to present itself as a reasonable actor that is willing to “open” the strait to “free” travel without tolls
ISW·IRAN Iran 02:01 UTC
Iran: Legitimizing any aspect of Iranian control over the strait, with or without tolls, is unacceptable due to the precedent it sets
ISW·IRAN Iran 02:01 UTC
Iran: This prioritization helps Iran encourage states to implicitly recognize its control over the strait while avoiding international concerns over paying the Iranians and incurring sanctions risk
ISW·IRAN Iran 02:01 UTC
Iran: Iran may be prioritizing upholding the “legitimacy” of its claims to the Strait of Hormuz over toll collection at this time
ISW Crimea 02:01 UTC
Crimea: Russia’s persecution of Jehovah’s Witnesses continues in occupied Crimea
ISW 02:01 UTC
Global: Occupied Oleshky is facing a worsening humanitarian crisis that the Russian occupation leadership shows no signs of remedying
ISW Ukraine 02:01 UTC
Global: The Zarnitsa 2.0 youth military-patriotic competition continues in occupied Ukraine
ISW Ukraine 02:01 UTC
Global: The Russian Ministry of Education approved an official concept for the implementation of historical education that will grant the Russian state even greater control over the school system and educational materials in occupied Ukraine
ISW Ukraine 02:01 UTC
Global: The Russian Zemsky Teacher and Zemsky Cultural Worker programs continue to place Russian citizens in influential educational and cultural positions in occupied Ukraine
ISW United Kingdom 02:01 UTC
Europe: The European Union (EU), the United Kingdom (UK), and Canada imposed sanctions on Russian officials and entities involved in the forced deportation, militarization, and indoctrination of Ukrainian children
ISW Ukraine 02:01 UTC
Global: Russian occupation officials continue to temporarily transfer and deport Ukrainian children to Russian-run summer camps in occupied Ukraine and Russia
ISW Russia 02:01 UTC
Global: The report attempted to deny well-documented evidence of Russia’s treatment of Ukrainian children
ISW Russia 02:01 UTC
Russia: The Kremlin-appointed Commissioner for Children’s Rights published a report on Russia’s policy toward Ukrainian children
ISW·UKR Russia 02:01 UTC
Russia: Russian forces are performing worse on the battlefield in Spring 2026 than when the Kremlin emphasized its demand for Donetsk Oblast in 2025
ISW·UKR Ukraine 02:01 UTC
Ukraine: A senior Kremlin official explicitly stated that the Kremlin demands that Ukrainian forces withdraw from the remainder of Donetsk Oblast as a precondition for a ceasefire — a battlefield objective that Russian forces have thus far failed to achieve
ISW·UKR Kyiv 02:01 UTC
Kyiv, Ukraine: Russia continued to threaten retaliatory strikes against Kyiv City ahead of the May 9 to 11 ceasefire announcement
ISW·UKR Ukraine 02:01 UTC
Ukraine: Ukraine and Russia agreed to a three-day ceasefire from May 9 to 11 for the May 9 Victory Day parade and a prisoner of war exchange
ISW·UKR Ukraine 02:01 UTC
Kupyansk, Ukraine: Russian forces likely do not maintain positions in Kupyansk after struggling for months to support a small and isolated group of servicemembers that infiltrated into the city
ISW·UKR Ukraine 02:01 UTC
Mariupol, Ukraine: Ukrainian forces are reconnoitering and interdicting Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) in and near occupied Mariupol, Donetsk Oblast (about 105 kilometers from the frontline), demonstrating increased capabilities as part of Ukraine’s intensifying mid-range strike campaign
ISW·IRAN Iran 02:01 UTC
Iran: Some of these proxies have already demonstrated the ability to employ these systems against US and allied targets
ISW·IRAN Iran 02:01 UTC
Iran: Iran likely also seeks to demonstrate that continued US military actions against Iran will generate direct security and economic costs for Gulf states cooperating with the United States.  Confidential Russian documents, seen by The Economist, revealed a Russian proposal to offer Iran several thousand drones and training for Iranian drone operators, which raises concerns about the proliferation of fiber-optic drone technology to Iran and its regional proxies
ISW·IRAN Iran 02:01 UTC
Iran: Iran has continued to escalate rhetorically and militarily against the United Arab Emirates (UAE) amid Iranian attempts to portray the UAE as a hostile state supporting US and Israeli operations against Iran
ISW·IRAN Iran 02:01 UTC
Iran: The United States has continued efforts to maintain an effective naval blockade against Iran as Iran continues to assert long-term sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz
ISW·IRAN Iran 02:01 UTC
Iran: Iran likely views control over the strait as essential to restoring deterrence against the United States and Israel following the degradation of its other forms of deterrence
ISW·IRAN Iran 02:01 UTC
Iran: Iranian officials continue to frame control over the Strait of Hormuz as a key strategic interest and a critical component of long-term Iranian deterrence
ISW Taiwan 02:01 UTC
Global: The 780 billion NTD budget lacks the funding for Taiwanese domestic weapons development, the ‘T-Dome’ missile defense network, and joint US-Taiwan manufacturing, however
ISW 02:01 UTC
Global: Taiwanese Special Defense Budget: The Taiwanese LY passed a special defense budget totaling 780 billion NTD on May 8, despite efforts by KMT Chairwoman Cheng Li-wun to pass a smaller version of the budget plan
ISW 02:01 UTC
Global: The PRC may be attempting to mitigate risks posed by US sanctions without projecting weakness ahead of the Trump-Xi meeting
ISW 02:01 UTC
Global: PRC Economic Policy: The PRC presented seemingly contradicting guidance regarding whether PRC entities should abide by US sanctions
ISW Strait of Hormuz 02:01 UTC
Global: The PRC’s stated positions suggest that it seeks an end to active hostilities and eventual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, but is unlikely to increase its involvement in the conflict
ISW Iran 02:01 UTC
Iran: PRC-Iran Relations: Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi visited the PRC for the first time since the Iran War began, possibly to coordinate with the PRC prior to the Xi-Trump meeting
ISW Iran 02:01 UTC
Iran: US-PRC Diplomacy: Diplomatic engagements between the United States and the PRC preceding next week’s summit between US President Donald Trump and CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping indicate that US-PRC trade, US arms sales to Taiwan, and the Iran war will be major topics of discussion
ISW·IRAN Iran 02:01 UTC
Iran: Please consider including the Institute for the Study of War in your estate plans
ISW·IRAN Iran 02:01 UTC
Iran: The newly selected Iranian supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, previewed this position in his first official statement: “We will seek reparations from the enemy, and if they refuse, we will take as much of their assets as we see fit, and if that is not possible, we will destroy that many of their assets." His official Telegram account has since published content describing how Iran can wield control of the strait to coerce and extort others and catalyze a new regional and global order
ISW·IRAN Iran 02:01 UTC
Iran: They have described this “new management” of the strait as leverage to fine and impose costs on those involved in the war against Iran, especially the Gulf states
ISW·IRAN Iran 02:01 UTC
Iran: They claim that they will continue to regulate and tax traffic through it
ISW·IRAN Iran 02:01 UTC
Iran: Iranian officials and state media have repeatedly stated in recent weeks that they seek permanent control of the Strait of Hormuz and that they regard the strait as sovereign Iranian waters
ISW·IRAN Iran 02:01 UTC
Iran: This arrangement would severely undermine the US position in the Middle East and jeopardize the security of US allies and partners globally, including those in Europe and the Indo-Pacific
ISW·IRAN Iran 02:01 UTC
Iran: Iran is now positioning itself to emerge from the war in a stronger strategic position, with veto power over who can access one of the most critical maritime chokepoints in the world
ISW·IRAN Iran 02:01 UTC
Iran: This demand marks a significant expansion of Iranian war aims beyond just survival and denying the United States and its partners the accomplishment of their own objectives
ISW·IRAN Iran 02:01 UTC
Iran: Iranian leaders are claiming sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz and seeking permanent control of maritime traffic through it
ISW·IRAN Iran 02:01 UTC
Iran: United States and its partners must defeat the long-term Iranian threat to international shipping as part of any ending of the current war
ISW·UKR Ukraine 02:01 UTC
Ukraine: Internal Russian Presidential Administration documents suggest that Russia remains unwilling to meaningfully compromise on an end-state to the war in Ukraine
ISW·UKR Russia 02:01 UTC
Russia: The Kremlin continues to set informational conditions to justify possible future air defense activity against NATO airspace
ISW·UKR Kyiv 02:01 UTC
Kyiv, Ukraine: The Kremlin is likely attempting to establish that it can depopulate Kyiv City and control the decision-making of Ukraine's partners with threats of escalating the war, even as Russian President Vladimir Putin likely seeks to disguise the weakness that Ukrainian deep-rear strikes against Russia have exposed
ISW·UKR Ukraine 02:01 UTC
Ukraine: Russia is issuing increasingly dramatic threats of escalation against Ukraine in the lead up to the unilaterally-declared Victory Day ceasefire
ISW·UKR Russia 02:01 UTC
Russia: The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) announced the terms for Russia's unilaterally-declared May 9 Victory Day ceasefire
ISW·IRAN Iran 02:01 UTC
Iran: The fact that Iranian media and Mojtaba’s office have not provided details about what Mojtaba and Pezeshkian discussed suggests that Pezeshkian did not convince Mojtaba to alter the regime’s current policies
ISW·IRAN Iran 02:01 UTC
Iran: Pezeshkian reportedly sought an emergency meeting with Mojtaba to ask him to stop the IRGC’s attacks on the UAE and to prevent their reoccurrence
ISW·IRAN Iran 02:01 UTC
Iran: Iranian regime media highlighted a meeting between Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei and President Masoud Pezeshkian, likely to display unity amid reports of divisions within the regime
ISW·IRAN Iran 02:01 UTC
Iran: Iran is increasingly attempting to formalize recognition of its sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz in a way that would fundamentally remake regional and global maritime norms in a manner extremely detrimental to US interests
ISW·IRAN Iran 02:01 UTC
Iran: Iran’s highly enriched uranium (HEU) stockpile and enrichment activities are some of the main obstacles to a deal
ISW·IRAN Iran 02:01 UTC
Iran: CENTCOM stated that the United States “does not seek escalation.” The United States and Iran remain divided over key issues, particularly issues related to Iran’s nuclear program and Iranian efforts to assert sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz
ISW·IRAN Iran 02:01 UTC
Iran: US Central Command (CENTCOM) announced on May 7 that US forces “eliminated inbound threats” and struck Iranian military facilities responsible for attacks on US forces after Iran targeted US naval assets in and around the Strait of Hormuz
ISW Russia 02:01 UTC
Global: Ukrainian military intelligence warned that Russia plans to escalate its extractive economic policies in occupied Ukraine over the coming year
ISW 02:01 UTC
Global: Russian occupation courts continue to harshly punish residents of occupied areas for online activity perceived as subversive or anti-Russian
ISW Russia 02:01 UTC
Global: Russia’s ruling United Russia party continues to promote pro-Russia loyalists, Russian military personnel, and their relatives in preparation for September 2026 State Duma “elections” in occupied Ukraine
ISW 02:01 UTC
Global: A Russian occupation official highlighted how Russian real estate policy in occupied areas is explicitly disenfranchising Ukrainian residents
ISW Donetsk 02:01 UTC
Global: A Donetsk Oblast occupation official provided updates on the occupation administration’s seizure, nationalization, and redistribution of property, supporting ISW’s assessments on Russian property policy and repopulation efforts in occupied areas
ISW 02:01 UTC
Global: Russian occupation officials continue efforts to militarize Ukrainian schoolchildren by facilitating municipal stages of the Zarnitsa 2.0 military-patriotic competition
ISW Crimea 02:01 UTC
Crimea: The Artek International Children’s Center — an occupied Crimea-based organization that serves as a central hub for the deportation and propagandization of Ukrainian children — is becoming increasingly involved in the production and provision of components for the Russian military
ISW Ukraine 02:01 UTC
Global: Russian Cossack organizations are increasingly penetrating the school system in occupied Ukraine
ISW Russia 02:01 UTC
Global: Russia is escalating the temporary transfer and deportation of Ukrainian children to participate in Russian-run summer camp programs in occupied Ukraine and Russia — a yearly trend that ISW has observed every summer since the beginning of the full-scale invasion
ISW·IRAN Iran 02:01 UTC
Iran: These statements, concerns, and preparations do not on their own indicate that the Iranian regime is prepared to surrender as a result of economic pressure
ISW·IRAN Iran 02:01 UTC
Iran: Iranian officials’ public emphasis on economic management suggests that the regime recognizes that economic pressure could create internal stability risks and is preparing mechanisms to manage those risks
ISW·IRAN Iran 02:01 UTC
Iran: This effort supports the “negative” strategic objective of preventing regime collapse caused by protests that result from serious economic instability
ISW·IRAN Iran 02:01 UTC
Iran: The Iranian regime is preparing for economic instability that could cause domestic unrest
ISW·IRAN Iran 02:01 UTC
Iran: The introduction of these positive strategic objectives does not mean that Iran has abandoned its “negative” strategic objectives, which include limiting discussions on its nuclear program and avoiding an economic collapse that could trigger severe domestic unrest leading to the collapse of the regime
ISW·IRAN Iran 02:01 UTC
Iran: US sanctions on Iranian oil have contributed to severely weakening Iran’s ability to raise revenue that the regime has used to fund the development of its ballistic missile program
ISW·IRAN Iran 02:01 UTC
Iran: Iran is also seeking economic relief as a positive objective from the war, which could enable Iran to accelerate its efforts to reconstitute its ballistic missile program
ISW·IRAN Iran 02:01 UTC
Iran: Iranian negotiators increasingly prioritized securing its control over the Strait in negotiations, likely because it believes Iranian control over the Strait would act as a safeguard against future wars between Iran and Israel and the United States
ISW·IRAN Iran 02:01 UTC
Iran: Long-term control of the Strait would require Iran to secure US recognition of its claims to the Strait of Hormuz through a negotiated agreement so that Iran could order ships to comply with its rules legitimately and then intercept those ships that fail to comply
ISW·IRAN Iran 02:01 UTC
Iran: Iran’s principal positive strategic objective at this time is to secure recognition of its sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, which would fundamentally remake regional and global maritime norms in a manner extremely detrimental to US interests
ISW·IRAN Iran 02:01 UTC
Iran: Iran seeks to achieve positive strategic objectives beyond the negative objective of surviving the war
ISW·UKR Ukraine 02:01 UTC
Ukraine: Russia decisively ignored the Ukrainian ceasefire and launched a series of drones and missiles that killed at least 21 civilians and injured at least 82
ISW·UKR Ukraine 02:01 UTC
Ukraine: The Russian military ignored Ukraine's unilaterally-declared ceasefire and the Kremlin accused Ukraine of violating the ceasefire despite the fact that Russian forces conducted combat missions after the unilateral Ukrainian ceasefire began in the morning of May 6
ISW·UKR Russia 02:01 UTC
Russia: Ukraine unilaterally enacted a ceasefire starting at midnight on the night of May 5 to 6 in response to Russia's unilaterally declared Victory Day ceasefire planned for May 9
ISW·UKR Ukraine 02:01 UTC
Ukraine: Neither Russian nor Ukrainian forces made confirmed advances on the frontline.  Russian forces launched 409 drones toward Ukraine overnight
ISW·UKR Ukraine 02:01 UTC
Ukraine: Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil infrastructure degraded the average output of Russian oil refineries to their lowest level since December 2009
ISW·UKR Ukraine 02:01 UTC
Ukraine: The Ukrainian General Staff confirmed that Ukrainian forces recently struck several Russian aircraft up to 1,676 kilometers from the international border
ISW·UKR Ukraine 02:01 UTC
Ukraine: Ukrainian forces struck Russian oil infrastructure in Krasnodar and Perm krais and Orenburg Oblast between April 29 and May 1, including a strike against the Tuapse Oil Refinery for the fourth time since April 1
ISW·IRAN Iran 02:01 UTC
Iran: The US naval blockade and sanctions are certainly applying economic pressure on Iran, but the regime’s historical mismanagement of the economy, corruption, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)’s dominance over economic institutions have played a major role in deteriorating the Iranian economy
ISW·IRAN Iran 02:01 UTC
Iran: Iranian media and officials are attempting to deflect responsibility for Iran’s dire economic conditions by attributing these conditions to US military and economic pressure
ISW·IRAN Iran 02:01 UTC
Iran: Iran would likely use these launchers to restart its attack campaign against US interests, Israel, and other regional countries in the event of a resumption of conflict
ISW·IRAN Iran 02:01 UTC
Iran: Western media reported that Iran has made attempts to regain access to weapons and missile launchers that it hid underground or were buried under debris from US and Israeli airstrikes
ISW·IRAN Iran 02:01 UTC
Iran: Iran is exploiting the current ceasefire to try to reconstitute its missile and drone capabilities ahead of a potential resumption of conflict
ISW·IRAN Iran 02:01 UTC
Iran: Trump’s dissatisfaction with Iran’s latest proposal reflects continued Iranian inflexibility on key issues, such as the nuclear program and the Strait of Hormuz
ISW·IRAN Iran 02:01 UTC
Iran: US President Donald Trump stated that he is “not satisfied” with Iran’s latest proposal
ISW Taiwan 02:01 UTC
Global: The PRC aims to present the DPP as an obstacle to cross-strait dialogue and likely sees the KMT under Chairwoman Cheng Li-wun as a better option for influencing Taiwan
ISW Taiwan 02:01 UTC
Global: Cheng stated that she hopes to use this trip to change US perceptions of the PRC.  PRC Cognitive Warfare: The PRC TAO highlighted a poll of Taiwanese people that showed over half of those polled agreed that Taiwan should discuss cross-strait unification and strengthen cross-strait engagement
ISW United States 02:01 UTC
Global: KMT-US Engagement: KMT Chairwoman Cheng Li-wun announced a planned visit in June to the United States to meet with US universities and US policy makers
ISW 02:01 UTC
Global: Divisions within the KMT could further complicate efforts to pass a version of the budget
ISW Taiwan 02:01 UTC
Global: Taiwan’s Special Defense Budget: Taiwan’s special defense budget remains stalled due to partisan gridlock, despite increased US pressure to pass the budget
ISW South Korea 02:01 UTC
Global: This plan could serve to clarify South Korea’s role in a Taiwan contingency
ISW South Korea 02:01 UTC
Global: US-South Korean Relations: USFK Commander Xavier Brunson proposed establishing South Korea as a regional sustainment hub, which would improve US operational efficiency in the Indo-Pacific
ISW Philippines 02:01 UTC
Global: The PLA likely seeks to show that it can surge a military presence around the Philippines as a sign of its displeasure with Philippines military cooperation
ISW South China Sea 02:01 UTC
Global: PLAN Exercises: The PLAN STC conducted two major deployments in the South China Sea and West Pacific, likely in response to the ongoing Balikatan 2026 combined exercises
ISW·UKR Ukraine 02:01 UTC
Ukraine: Ukraine has received its first mobile F-16 fighter jet flight simulators
ISW·UKR Ukraine 02:01 UTC
Ukraine: The United States released a previously-authorized $400 million in funds for Ukraine
ISW·UKR Ukraine 02:01 UTC
Ukraine: Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev emphasized Russia’s commitment to its war aims in Ukraine and claimed that Russia is in an existential conflict with the West immediately after Trump’s call with Russian President Vladimir Putin on April 29
ISW·IRAN Iran 02:01 UTC
Iran: Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and President Masoud Pezeshkian are reportedly dissatisfied with Araghchi’s close cooperation with Vahidi and approach toward negotiations, even though they have publicly signaled their acquiescence to Vahidi’s hardline approach.  Iran is trying to sow divisions between the Gulf states and the United States as part of a longstanding Iranian effort to push the Gulf countries to expel US forces from their territory
ISW·IRAN Iran 02:01 UTC
Iran: This report suggests that Araghchi may have aligned himself with Vahidi’s position on negotiations
ISW·IRAN Iran 02:01 UTC
Iran: Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi has reportedly been acting in “full coordination” with Vahidi and following Vahidi’s “instructions” over the past two weeks, according to two informed sources speaking to anti-regime media on April 30
ISW·IRAN Iran 02:01 UTC
Iran: Some Iranian officials who have advocated for a “pragmatist” approach toward negotiations may be aligning themselves behind Vahidi’s redlines, which Mojtaba publicly endorsed in his April 30 statement
ISW·IRAN Iran 02:01 UTC
Iran: Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei declared on April 30 that Iran will retain control over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and maintain its nuclear and missile capabilities, which supports ISW-CTP’s assessment that the Iranian regime is unlikely to make meaningful concessions in its next proposal to the United States
ISW Crimea 02:01 UTC
Crimea: Russian state-owned VTB Bank is expanding investment in residential construction in occupied Crimea
ISW Israel 02:01 UTC
Israel: Israeli and Ukrainian media report that Russia is exporting grain stolen from occupied Ukraine to Israel
ISW Ukraine 02:01 UTC
Global: Russian authorities continue detaining residents in occupied Ukraine and pursuing severe treason sentences for perceived pro-Ukrainian activity
ISW Russia 02:01 UTC
Global: A major mine operator in occupied Luhansk Oblast is withholding wages and laying off workers, underscoring the instability of Russia’s extractive project in occupied Ukraine
ISW Russia 02:01 UTC
Global: Russia’s ruling United Russia party announced pro-occupation candidates for the September 2026 State Duma “elections” in occupied Ukraine
ISW Russia 02:01 UTC
Global: ZNPP occupation authorities continue indoctrinating and militarizing children in occupied Enerhodar to channel them into Russia’s nuclear sector
ISW Ukraine 02:01 UTC
Global: Russian military-patriotic groups are expanding across occupied Ukraine, including by training youth to operate drones
ISW Ukraine 02:01 UTC
Mariupol, Ukraine: Russian officials continue to temporarily deport children from occupied Mariupol to St
ISW·IRAN Iran 02:01 UTC
Iran: Iran has almost certainly used the ceasefire to reorganize and regenerate its missile and drone forces, which were badly degraded on the operational level prior to the ceasefire
ISW·IRAN Iran 02:01 UTC
Iran: Iran is reportedly exploring alternative methods to circumvent the US blockade of its ports, which is a suboptimal way to alleviate some of the economic pressure, including seizing US commercial vessels or Israeli-linked vessels, relying on trade with Russia and other countries bordering the Caspian Sea, or even the Houthis attacking vessels through the Bab el Mandeb Strait
ISW·IRAN Iran 02:01 UTC
Iran: Iran has responded to growing pressure on the economy caused by the war, sanctions, and the blockade by shoring up internal unity, presumably as an initial step in a more comprehensive internal security plan
ISW·IRAN Iran 02:01 UTC
Iran: Iranian leaders are preparing for a variety of contingencies and risks that could result from a hardline negotiating position that fails to end the war, including an economic collapse that triggers economic unrest, a long-term blockade, or a resumption of the US-Israeli air campaign
ISW·IRAN Iran 02:01 UTC
Iran: This would enable Iran to present a “new proposal” to the United States without compromising on any Iranian red lines
ISW·IRAN Iran 02:01 UTC
Iran: The Iranian regime is likely attempting to modify and legitimize its plan to exert sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz by including Oman in a scheme to collect tolls on shipping through the Strait
ISW·IRAN Iran 02:01 UTC
Iran: Other Iranian regime factions do not appear to materially constrain Vahidi’s uncompromising position
ISW·IRAN Iran 02:01 UTC
Iran: Mainstream Iranian politicians are consolidating around the decision to avoid discussing the nuclear issue before the United States lifts the naval blockade on Iranian ports, which was Vahidi’s preferred policy outcome
ISW·IRAN Iran 02:01 UTC
Iran: Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Major General Ahmad Vahidi, whose hardline position on negotiations the regime has adopted, appears unwilling to concede on Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s nuclear program
ISW·IRAN Iran 02:01 UTC
Iran: Iran is unlikely to make meaningful concessions in its next proposal to the United States, which is expected in the next several days
ISW·UKR Ukraine 02:01 UTC
Druzhkivka, Ukraine: Ukrainian forces advanced in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area, western Zaporizhia Oblast, and in the Pokrovsk, Oleksandrivka, and Hulyaipole directions
ISW·UKR Ukraine 02:01 UTC
Ukraine: Ukraine’s domestic defense industrial base (DIB) and production capabilities continues to support allies
ISW·UKR Russia 02:01 UTC
Russia: The Kremlin is likely using the threat of “terrorist activity” to cloak voter suppression and illegal activities in occupied Ukraine ahead of the September 2026 elections
ISW·UKR Russia 02:01 UTC
Russia: Russia’s war in Ukraine is forcing the Kremlin to once again downgrade the festivities for its annual May 9 Victory Day parade, an event that Putin has historically used to posture Russian military power and victory in Ukraine
ISW·UKR Iran 02:01 UTC
Iran: The Kremlin also reportedly used the Trump-Putin call to scold Trump for US-Israeli operations against Iran
ISW·UKR Ukraine 02:01 UTC
Ukraine: Ukraine has largely stymied Russian advances across the frontline, blunting the Russian Spring-Summer 2026 offensive thus far
ISW·UKR Ukraine 02:01 UTC
Ukraine: Russian President Vladimir Putin used his April 29 phone call with US President Donald Trump to reiterate his commitment to his original war aims and promote his cognitive warfare effort, falsely portraying Ukraine’s defenses as collapsing and Russian victory in Ukraine as inevitable